SOCRATES

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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Sep 21 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Sep 21 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Sep 28 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 7,433 Primaries, 21,537 Secondaries (62,842 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 4.416 2.183E-02 0.016 0.060 6.953
26140 CZ-4B DEB [-] 5.050 2021 Sep 25 05:54:41.366 2021 Sep 25 05:54:42.085 2021 Sep 25 05:54:42.804
45681 STARLINK-1396 [+] 7.412 1.306E-02 0.004 0.018 4.636
47607 STARLINK-2025 [+] 7.417 2021 Sep 27 14:06:52.806 2021 Sep 27 14:06:53.885 2021 Sep 27 14:06:54.963
20580 HST [+] 1.001 6.819E-03 0.063 0.146 13.509
47506 ICEYE-X9 [+] 0.307 2021 Sep 21 02:55:32.868 2021 Sep 21 02:55:33.238 2021 Sep 21 02:55:33.608
19826 COSMOS 2004 [?] 1.888 3.637E-03 0.028 0.040 14.665
36267 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.130 2021 Sep 22 00:02:57.794 2021 Sep 22 00:02:58.135 2021 Sep 22 00:02:58.476
46171 STARLINK-1633 [+] 1.320 3.309E-03 0.009 0.035 6.950
05165 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 1.190 2021 Sep 22 00:28:35.929 2021 Sep 22 00:28:36.648 2021 Sep 22 00:28:37.368
23773 COSMOS 2327 [?] 3.483 3.143E-03 0.034 0.101 11.100
11327 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.913 2021 Sep 24 06:29:35.225 2021 Sep 24 06:29:35.675 2021 Sep 24 06:29:36.126
11605 METEOR 2-5 [?] 3.324 2.978E-03 0.054 0.076 14.765
35139 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.711 2021 Sep 23 14:36:54.824 2021 Sep 23 14:36:55.163 2021 Sep 23 14:36:55.502
45670 STARLINK-1453 [+] 7.112 1.897E-03 0.012 0.046 6.522
48033 STARLINK-2286 [+] 6.633 2021 Sep 27 05:11:35.177 2021 Sep 27 05:11:35.944 2021 Sep 27 05:11:36.711
26930 PICOSAT 9 [?] 3.206 1.875E-03 0.010 0.038 5.788
30295 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.500 2021 Sep 23 13:26:58.513 2021 Sep 23 13:26:59.377 2021 Sep 23 13:27:00.241
12409 COSMOS 1266 [?] 5.808 1.863E-03 0.049 0.127 12.436
37693 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.667 2021 Sep 26 00:53:04.158 2021 Sep 26 00:53:04.560 2021 Sep 26 00:53:04.962

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.