SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Feb 24 00:08 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Feb 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Mar 02 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,179 Primaries, 18,282 Secondaries (30,807 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
45096 STARLINK-1152 [+] 3.606 3.853E-02 0.003 0.010 0.001
45102 STARLINK-1195 [+] 3.542 2020 Feb 27 00:07:42.561 2020 Feb 27 02:02:57.544 2020 Feb 27 04:36:10.822
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 1.099 2.892E-02 0.038 0.090 13.078
28346 DMSP 5D-2 F11 DEB [-] 1.583 2020 Feb 24 15:49:36.124 2020 Feb 24 15:49:36.506 2020 Feb 24 15:49:36.889
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 2.114 2.657E-02 0.067 0.214 9.812
39073 GLOBALSTAR M093 [+] 2.435 2020 Feb 25 21:22:06.553 2020 Feb 25 21:22:07.062 2020 Feb 25 21:22:07.571
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 2.609 2.223E-02 0.015 0.062 1.330
28220 SHIYAN 1 (SY-1) [+] 2.751 2020 Feb 26 02:28:20.978 2020 Feb 26 02:28:24.736 2020 Feb 26 02:28:28.495
25338 NOAA 15 [B] 3.912 1.194E-02 0.018 0.035 14.108
14568 SL-8 DEB [-] 3.990 2020 Feb 27 09:51:55.129 2020 Feb 27 09:51:55.484 2020 Feb 27 09:51:55.838
14401 COSMOS 1503 [?] 6.648 9.206E-03 0.008 0.032 6.553
32364 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.802 2020 Feb 29 23:11:31.409 2020 Feb 29 23:11:32.171 2020 Feb 29 23:11:32.934
22823 SPOT 3 [-] 4.777 7.544E-03 0.044 0.063 14.845
29292 METEOR 2-5 DEB [-] 5.961 2020 Feb 28 04:52:42.452 2020 Feb 28 04:52:42.788 2020 Feb 28 04:52:43.125
09903 METEOR 1-27 [?] 7.337 4.853E-03 0.030 0.084 11.741
25863 SL-16 DEB [-] 7.135 2020 Mar 01 17:46:44.254 2020 Mar 01 17:46:44.679 2020 Mar 01 17:46:45.105
06256 METEOR 1-13 [?] 5.592 3.055E-03 0.053 0.075 14.786
12204 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 5.588 2020 Feb 29 00:04:39.561 2020 Feb 29 00:04:39.899 2020 Feb 29 00:04:40.237
08026 METEOR 2-1 [?] 5.568 2.534E-03 0.034 0.142 2.289
30708 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.252 2020 Feb 28 19:53:09.229 2020 Feb 28 19:53:11.413 2020 Feb 28 19:53:13.596

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Feb 24 01:51:04 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Feb 24 07:17:12 UTC