SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Jul 15 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Jul 15 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Jul 22 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,777 Primaries, 17,552 Secondaries (28,356 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25489 STEX [-] 6.617 1.000E+00 0.000 1.243 14.882
26432 CZ-4B DEB [-] 6.701 2019 Jul 21 17:42:45.053 2019 Jul 21 17:42:45.378 2019 Jul 21 17:42:45.704
25489 STEX [-] 0.861 1.000E+00 0.000 2.751 14.919
32227 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.960 2019 Jul 15 23:33:11.966 2019 Jul 15 23:33:12.246 2019 Jul 15 23:33:12.526
25489 STEX [-] 1.229 1.000E+00 0.000 1.503 14.819
40495 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 1.025 2019 Jul 16 08:23:06.199 2019 Jul 16 08:23:06.520 2019 Jul 16 08:23:06.842
25489 STEX [-] 1.785 1.000E+00 0.000 1.847 14.954
31328 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.009 2019 Jul 16 21:43:49.388 2019 Jul 16 21:43:49.699 2019 Jul 16 21:43:50.010
25489 STEX [-] 2.301 1.000E+00 0.000 0.710 12.868
39547 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.144 2019 Jul 17 10:06:30.843 2019 Jul 17 10:06:31.228 2019 Jul 17 10:06:31.613
25489 STEX [-] 3.028 1.000E+00 0.000 0.899 2.922
34014 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.055 2019 Jul 18 03:33:30.988 2019 Jul 18 03:33:32.672 2019 Jul 18 03:33:34.355
25489 STEX [-] 3.420 1.000E+00 0.000 1.814 15.143
26119 CZ-4B DEB [-] 3.339 2019 Jul 18 12:58:15.253 2019 Jul 18 12:58:15.560 2019 Jul 18 12:58:15.868
25489 STEX [-] 2.542 3.936E-01 1.071 3.303 12.797
39547 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.386 2019 Jul 17 15:54:40.325 2019 Jul 17 15:54:40.619 2019 Jul 17 15:54:40.912
25489 STEX [-] 0.596 3.767E-01 0.942 3.153 15.115
26122 CZ-4B DEB [-] 1.085 2019 Jul 15 17:12:30.498 2019 Jul 15 17:12:30.755 2019 Jul 15 17:12:31.012
25489 STEX [-] 2.632 3.288E-01 1.387 3.400 14.620
34750 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.511 2019 Jul 17 18:03:19.549 2019 Jul 17 18:03:19.799 2019 Jul 17 18:03:20.050

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Jul 15 17:42:37 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Jul 15 23:56:49 UTC