SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 May 25 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,619 Primaries, 17,390 Secondaries (27,675 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25489 STEX [-] 6.948 1.000E+00 0.000 2.962 14.963
35931 OCEANSAT-2 [+] 6.959 2019 May 31 19:38:28.634 2019 May 31 19:38:28.903 2019 May 31 19:38:29.172
44110 PROGRESS-MS 11 [+] 1.079 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44222 DRAGON CRS-17 [+] 1.079 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
44188 CYGNUS NG-11 [+] 1.079 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44222 DRAGON CRS-17 [+] 1.079 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
44069 SOYUZ-MS 12 [+] 1.079 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44222 DRAGON CRS-17 [+] 1.079 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
43702 PROGRESS-MS 10 [+] 1.079 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44222 DRAGON CRS-17 [+] 1.079 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
43756 SOYUZ-MS 11 [+] 1.079 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44222 DRAGON CRS-17 [+] 1.079 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 May 25 12:00:00.000 2019 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
25489 STEX [-] 0.808 1.000E+00 0.000 2.490 14.843
31938 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.462 2019 May 25 16:16:15.920 2019 May 25 16:16:16.213 2019 May 25 16:16:16.505
25489 STEX [-] 0.780 1.000E+00 0.000 2.657 11.098
40224 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.550 2019 May 25 15:36:46.416 2019 May 25 15:36:46.798 2019 May 25 15:36:47.179
25489 STEX [-] 1.032 1.000E+00 0.000 1.905 14.685
40810 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.630 2019 May 25 21:39:17.235 2019 May 25 21:39:17.550 2019 May 25 21:39:17.864
25489 STEX [-] 2.880 1.000E+00 0.000 2.294 12.218
34751 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.798 2019 May 27 18:00:29.260 2019 May 27 18:00:29.624 2019 May 27 18:00:29.987

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 May 25 17:35:14 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 May 25 22:57:50 UTC