SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Apr 04 08:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Apr 04 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Apr 11 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,352 Primaries, 18,518 Secondaries (31,412 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
26824 INTELSAT 901 (IS-901) [+] 0.949 3.320E-02 0.023 0.093 0.000
44625 MEV-1 [+] 1.031 2020 Apr 04 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 04 09:44:29.146 2020 Apr 11 00:00:00.000
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 3.110 6.678E-03 0.054 0.076 14.846
19531 NOAA 11 [-] 3.159 2020 Apr 06 23:05:08.285 2020 Apr 06 23:05:08.621 2020 Apr 06 23:05:08.958
06828 COSMOS 586 [?] 6.525 4.950E-03 0.021 0.078 7.137
00426 THOR AGENA B R/B [-] 6.175 2020 Apr 10 08:22:53.618 2020 Apr 10 08:22:54.319 2020 Apr 10 08:22:55.019
24793 IRIDIUM 7 [-] 5.356 2.396E-03 0.059 0.195 9.914
16615 ARIANE 1 R/B [-] 4.865 2020 Apr 09 00:46:52.189 2020 Apr 09 00:46:52.693 2020 Apr 09 00:46:53.197
24842 IRIDIUM 911 [-] 6.931 2.350E-03 0.052 0.074 14.925
26454 CZ-4B DEB [-] 6.941 2020 Apr 10 16:28:46.304 2020 Apr 10 16:28:46.639 2020 Apr 10 16:28:46.974
20553 COSMOS 2068 [?] 6.769 1.707E-03 0.013 0.035 11.590
23445 COSMOS 2303 [?] 6.750 2020 Apr 10 12:04:58.290 2020 Apr 10 12:04:58.722 2020 Apr 10 12:04:59.153
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 1.565 1.516E-03 0.053 0.153 11.512
10208 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 1.792 2020 Apr 05 10:01:12.977 2020 Apr 05 10:01:13.411 2020 Apr 05 10:01:13.845
18585 COSMOS 1898 [?] 4.400 1.489E-03 0.020 0.083 3.326
39091 BRITE-AUSTRIA [-] 4.466 2020 Apr 08 06:44:39.555 2020 Apr 08 06:44:41.058 2020 Apr 08 06:44:42.561
13552 COSMOS 1408 [?] 3.979 1.250E-03 0.024 0.034 15.205
43132 PICSAT [+] 3.594 2020 Apr 07 19:05:57.705 2020 Apr 07 19:05:58.034 2020 Apr 07 19:05:58.363
23431 COSMOS 2298 [?] 0.124 1.200E-03 0.034 0.060 14.413
18513 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 0.168 2020 Apr 04 00:30:03.178 2020 Apr 04 00:30:03.525 2020 Apr 04 00:30:03.872

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Apr 04 09:55:15 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Apr 04 13:50:34 UTC