SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Apr 21 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Apr 28 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,601 Primaries, 17,393 Secondaries (26,936 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43756 SOYUZ-MS 11 [+] 1.485 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44188 CYGNUS NG-11 [+] 1.485 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 28 00:00:00.000
44110 PROGRESS-MS 11 [+] 1.485 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44188 CYGNUS NG-11 [+] 1.485 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 28 00:00:00.000
44069 SOYUZ-MS 12 [+] 1.485 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44188 CYGNUS NG-11 [+] 1.485 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 28 00:00:00.000
43702 PROGRESS-MS 10 [+] 1.485 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44188 CYGNUS NG-11 [+] 1.485 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 21 00:00:00.000 2019 Apr 28 00:00:00.000
25489 STEX [-] 0.534 1.000E+00 0.000 2.176 12.649
37712 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.358 2019 Apr 21 10:06:48.202 2019 Apr 21 10:06:48.558 2019 Apr 21 10:06:48.914
25489 STEX [-] 3.407 1.000E+00 0.000 2.021 14.946
28058 CHUANGXIN 1 (CX-1) [+] 4.368 2019 Apr 24 07:04:44.596 2019 Apr 24 07:04:44.902 2019 Apr 24 07:04:45.207
25489 STEX [-] 4.298 1.000E+00 0.000 2.772 8.735
41790 SCATSAT 1 [+] 4.636 2019 Apr 25 04:26:33.328 2019 Apr 25 04:26:33.805 2019 Apr 25 04:26:34.281
25489 STEX [-] 5.091 1.000E+00 0.000 2.266 11.541
34331 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.126 2019 Apr 25 23:28:29.245 2019 Apr 25 23:28:29.631 2019 Apr 25 23:28:30.018
25489 STEX [-] 5.956 1.000E+00 0.000 1.954 14.496
41372 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 6.732 2019 Apr 26 20:13:58.053 2019 Apr 26 20:13:58.370 2019 Apr 26 20:13:58.687
25489 STEX [-] 3.469 3.775E-01 1.148 3.308 13.738
42366 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 4.210 2019 Apr 24 08:33:50.268 2019 Apr 24 08:33:50.541 2019 Apr 24 08:33:50.813

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Apr 21 01:40:17 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Apr 21 08:07:12 UTC