SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Oct 17 00:10 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Oct 17 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Oct 24 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,284 Primaries, 17,014 Secondaries (24,613 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43537 PROGRESS-MS 09 [+] 1.524 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 1.524 2018 Oct 17 00:00:00.000 2018 Oct 17 00:00:00.000 2018 Oct 24 00:00:00.000
43493 SOYUZ-MS 09 [+] 1.524 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 1.524 2018 Oct 17 00:00:00.000 2018 Oct 17 00:00:00.000 2018 Oct 24 00:00:00.000
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 2.606 3.322E-02 0.020 0.031 14.898
33962 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 2.622 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.362 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.698 2018 Oct 19 10:01:22.033
15930 COSMOS 1670 [?] 1.511 1.618E-02 0.026 0.051 13.959
15399 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.669 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.136 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.494 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.852
22823 SPOT 3 [-] 4.705 5.028E-03 0.035 0.121 8.907
30265 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.955 2018 Oct 20 15:44:59.424 2018 Oct 20 15:44:59.985 2018 Oct 20 15:45:00.547
01291 SOLRAD 7B [?] 2.129 3.543E-03 0.023 0.070 11.086
02825 THOR AGENA D R/B [-] 2.114 2018 Oct 18 15:14:28.844 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.295 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.746
26410 CLUSTER II-FM7 (SAMBA) [+] -0.291 3.007E-03 0.945 3.661 0.001
26464 CLUSTER II-FM8 (TANGO) [+] 2.910 2018 Oct 17 13:48:37.941 2018 Oct 17 15:06:37.145 2018 Oct 17 16:21:26.989
32263 GLOBALSTAR M067 [+] 4.215 2.725E-03 0.010 0.036 8.552
35500 COSMOS 2453 [+] 4.404 2018 Oct 20 20:54:46.176 2018 Oct 20 20:54:46.760 2018 Oct 20 20:54:47.345
36797 AISSAT 1 [+] 7.111 2.197E-03 0.017 0.028 14.816
40017 TABLETSAT-AURORA [-] 6.559 2018 Oct 23 07:58:17.964 2018 Oct 23 07:58:18.301 2018 Oct 23 07:58:18.639
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 7.073 1.611E-03 0.123 0.505 3.726
22343 SL-16 DEB [-] 6.755 2018 Oct 23 05:23:55.989 2018 Oct 23 05:23:57.324 2018 Oct 23 05:23:58.659

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

TLE Data Space Data
Current GPS
Archives EOP
Documentation Space Weather
SATCAT Columns
Boxscore Software
SOCRATES
Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
Follow CelesTrak on Twitter @TSKelso
Last updated: 2018 Oct 17 01:30:13 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Oct 17 02:43:46 UTC