SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Sep 28 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Sep 28 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Oct 05 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,755 Primaries, 19,325 Secondaries (38,783 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25286 IRIDIUM 63 [-] 7.553 4.236E-02 0.007 0.028 5.180
40794 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 8.403 2020 Oct 05 10:18:54.979 2020 Oct 05 10:18:55.944 2020 Oct 05 10:18:56.909
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 5.766 1.359E-02 0.025 0.036 14.829
30830 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.544 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.241 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.578 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.915
26824 INTELSAT 901 (IS-901) [+] 1.234 1.307E-02 0.036 0.152 0.000
44625 MEV-1 [+] 1.378 2020 Sep 28 12:00:00.000 2020 Sep 29 01:47:19.621 2020 Oct 05 12:00:00.000
31698 TERRASAR-X [+] 0.912 5.104E-03 0.007 0.029 0.000
36605 TANDEM-X [+] 1.180 2020 Sep 28 12:00:00.000 2020 Sep 29 07:07:56.276 2020 Oct 01 11:54:28.800
40056 CANX-5 [+] 1.328 4.979E-03 0.012 0.018 14.856
27089 PSLV DEB [-] 1.871 2020 Sep 29 16:42:53.650 2020 Sep 29 16:42:53.986 2020 Sep 29 16:42:54.323
13243 COSMOS 1372 [?] 5.208 2.893E-03 0.055 0.136 12.694
20509 SL-8 R/B [-] 5.044 2020 Oct 03 00:01:51.366 2020 Oct 03 00:01:51.760 2020 Oct 03 00:01:52.154
06153 OAO 3 (COPERNICUS) [?] 5.637 2.483E-03 0.033 0.091 12.151
30664 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.643 2020 Oct 03 12:35:20.441 2020 Oct 03 12:35:20.852 2020 Oct 03 12:35:21.264
13148 COSMOS 1354 [?] 7.815 2.480E-03 0.038 0.084 13.497
16012 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.940 2020 Oct 05 09:18:17.947 2020 Oct 05 09:18:18.317 2020 Oct 05 09:18:18.688
44421 COSMOS 2535 [+] 0.731 2.089E-03 0.011 0.046 0.000
44424 COSMOS 2536 [+] 0.663 2020 Sep 28 12:00:00.000 2020 Sep 28 12:17:46.273 2020 Oct 05 12:00:00.000
25477 ORBCOMM FM23 [+] 2.571 1.909E-03 0.026 0.063 12.936
43479 IRIDIUM 152 [+] 2.762 2020 Sep 30 14:55:50.891 2020 Sep 30 14:55:51.278 2020 Sep 30 14:55:51.664

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

TLE Data Space Data
Current GPS
Archives EOP
Documentation Space Weather
SATCAT Columns
Boxscore Software
SOCRATES
We do not use cookies on CelesTrak and we do not collect any personal information, other than IP addresses, which are used to detect and block malicious activity and to assess system performance. We do not use IP addresses for tracking or any other purposes. No personal data is shared with third parties. For further details, see AGI's privacy policy.

Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
Follow CelesTrak on Twitter @TSKelso
Last updated: 2020 Sep 28 19:32:09 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Sep 29 03:04:07 UTC