SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jul 07 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jul 07 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jul 14 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,531 Primaries, 18,830 Secondaries (33,780 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 4.722 1.410E-02 0.004 0.017 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 4.787 2020 Jul 07 12:00:00.000 2020 Jul 11 01:54:17.677 2020 Jul 14 12:00:00.000
13777 IRAS [-] 0.995 1.829E-03 0.039 0.056 14.819
42122 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 1.057 2020 Jul 07 18:40:37.485 2020 Jul 07 18:40:37.822 2020 Jul 07 18:40:38.160
25489 STEX [-] 1.385 1.747E-03 0.221 0.356 14.694
40796 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.329 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.160 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.500 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.839
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 6.362 1.611E-03 0.287 0.841 12.026
39769 RISING 2 [+] 5.924 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.376 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.786 2020 Jul 13 07:23:50.196
25394 RESURS O1-N4 [?] 4.891 1.516E-03 0.070 0.116 14.528
42395 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 5.628 2020 Jul 11 18:16:20.424 2020 Jul 11 18:16:20.768 2020 Jul 11 18:16:21.112
04953 OPS 5268 (DMSP 5A F3) [-] 3.591 1.269E-03 0.046 0.103 13.412
27387 ARIANE 5 R/B [-] 3.818 2020 Jul 10 16:05:01.003 2020 Jul 10 16:05:01.376 2020 Jul 10 16:05:01.749
13127 COSMOS 1349 [?] 7.013 1.203E-03 0.041 0.084 13.636
30171 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.939 2020 Jul 13 21:34:43.317 2020 Jul 13 21:34:43.683 2020 Jul 13 21:34:44.050
44360 CP9 (LEO) [+] 6.148 1.082E-03 0.018 0.054 11.129
04200 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 6.685 2020 Jul 13 13:35:46.071 2020 Jul 13 13:35:46.520 2020 Jul 13 13:35:46.970
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 7.425 1.024E-03 0.308 1.233 5.322
22626 COSMOS 2242 [?] 7.449 2020 Jul 14 08:54:48.039 2020 Jul 14 08:54:48.949 2020 Jul 14 08:54:49.860
25885 GLOBALSTAR M054 [-] 6.036 9.449E-04 0.064 0.190 10.421
08300 THORAD DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.111 2020 Jul 12 21:28:18.051 2020 Jul 12 21:28:18.530 2020 Jul 12 21:28:19.009

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jul 07 18:59:39 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jul 08 00:08:42 UTC