SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jan 19 08:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jan 19 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jan 26 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,054 Primaries, 18,129 Secondaries (30,559 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
13718 METEOR 2-9 [?] 6.875 2.745E-02 0.014 0.030 13.768
12290 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.826 2020 Jan 25 16:01:25.483 2020 Jan 25 16:01:25.846 2020 Jan 25 16:01:26.209
37839 JUGNU [+] 2.267 2.690E-03 0.011 0.036 9.469
42385 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 1.731 2020 Jan 20 21:37:07.181 2020 Jan 20 21:37:07.709 2020 Jan 20 21:37:08.237
25320 IRIDIUM 71 [-] 2.003 1.742E-03 0.054 0.095 14.389
39964 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 2.719 2020 Jan 21 02:47:07.432 2020 Jan 21 02:47:07.779 2020 Jan 21 02:47:08.127
40023 FLOCK 1C-10 [P] 4.310 1.693E-03 0.018 0.034 14.337
43811 NEXTSAT-1 [+] 3.902 2020 Jan 23 02:29:47.861 2020 Jan 23 02:29:48.210 2020 Jan 23 02:29:48.559
06256 METEOR 1-13 [?] 1.829 1.174E-03 0.080 0.130 14.532
41536 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 3.443 2020 Jan 20 12:27:27.629 2020 Jan 20 12:27:27.973 2020 Jan 20 12:27:28.317
16681 COSMOS 1741 [?] 1.180 1.110E-03 0.116 0.478 3.830
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 0.763 2020 Jan 19 14:14:54.611 2020 Jan 19 14:14:55.911 2020 Jan 19 14:14:57.210
43165 LEMUR-2-MARSHALL [+] 5.349 9.754E-04 0.018 0.059 10.395
44086 LEMUR-2-ELHAM [+] 5.998 2020 Jan 24 04:16:49.141 2020 Jan 24 04:16:49.622 2020 Jan 24 04:16:50.103
42847 CORVUS BC1 [+] 0.936 9.604E-04 0.027 0.041 14.977
43788 FLOCK 3S-3 [+] 0.371 2020 Jan 19 13:26:11.995 2020 Jan 19 13:26:12.328 2020 Jan 19 13:26:12.662
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 2.022 9.385E-04 0.418 0.990 13.847
32445 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.058 2020 Jan 20 12:57:09.077 2020 Jan 20 12:57:09.431 2020 Jan 20 12:57:09.785
04327 SERT 2 [?] 2.865 8.304E-04 0.097 0.218 13.175
42221 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 3.941 2020 Jan 21 10:44:54.647 2020 Jan 21 10:44:55.027 2020 Jan 21 10:44:55.406

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jan 19 09:49:08 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jan 19 11:01:41 UTC