SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Nov 17 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Nov 17 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Nov 24 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,919 Primaries, 17,893 Secondaries (29,355 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43186 S-NET D [+] 2.357 1.141E-01 0.001 0.006 0.002
43189 S-NET C [+] 2.357 2019 Nov 17 00:00:00.000 2019 Nov 19 05:04:08.357 2019 Nov 24 00:00:00.000
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 1.966 4.855E-03 0.113 0.182 14.661
30007 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.981 2019 Nov 18 20:51:14.096 2019 Nov 18 20:51:14.437 2019 Nov 18 20:51:14.778
16917 COSMOS 1771 [?] 1.898 4.538E-03 0.032 0.081 12.440
38821 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.505 2019 Nov 18 18:57:31.021 2019 Nov 18 18:57:31.423 2019 Nov 18 18:57:31.825
25758 IRS-P4 (OCEANSAT) [-] 3.532 4.396E-03 0.040 0.073 14.379
35616 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 3.259 2019 Nov 20 07:20:25.376 2019 Nov 20 07:20:25.724 2019 Nov 20 07:20:26.072
23704 COSMOS 2322 [?] 1.801 2.801E-03 0.014 0.027 13.922
04143 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 1.768 2019 Nov 18 15:40:27.622 2019 Nov 18 15:40:27.981 2019 Nov 18 15:40:28.340
24677 COSMOS 2336 [?] 6.685 1.609E-03 0.036 0.072 13.691
03592 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 7.004 2019 Nov 23 11:29:33.323 2019 Nov 23 11:29:33.688 2019 Nov 23 11:29:34.053
13164 COSMOS 1361 [?] 3.411 1.569E-03 0.015 0.032 12.942
10876 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.735 2019 Nov 20 07:20:10.957 2019 Nov 20 07:20:11.344 2019 Nov 20 07:20:11.730
26932 SAPPHIRE (NO-45) [-] 6.798 1.478E-03 0.015 0.049 9.808
32304 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 10.752 2019 Nov 23 03:25:25.454 2019 Nov 23 03:25:25.964 2019 Nov 23 03:25:26.474
44754 STARLINK AT [+] 0.797 1.329E-03 0.014 0.057 0.001
44771 STARLINK BL [+] 0.797 2019 Nov 17 23:05:16.265 2019 Nov 18 01:07:07.762 2019 Nov 18 03:56:14.629
25860 OKEAN-O [?] 2.866 1.276E-03 0.072 0.148 13.999
39546 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.851 2019 Nov 19 23:53:03.366 2019 Nov 19 23:53:03.723 2019 Nov 19 23:53:04.080

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Nov 17 09:46:13 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Nov 17 14:55:27 UTC