SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Aug 17 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Aug 17 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Aug 24 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,280 Primaries, 17,057 Secondaries (24,743 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43560 LEMUR G [+] 1.077 1.426E-01 0.001 0.005 0.000
43561 LEMUR H [+] 1.404 2018 Aug 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Aug 18 05:00:16.916 2018 Aug 21 13:37:58.997
24278 JAS-2 (FO-29) [P] 5.227 1.791E-02 0.003 0.010 7.938
22352 SL-16 DEB [-] 5.238 2018 Aug 22 03:57:34.885 2018 Aug 22 03:57:35.515 2018 Aug 22 03:57:36.145
26113 IMAGE [P] 4.730 6.641E-03 1.500 3.269 11.796
28608 EXPLORER 38 DEB [-] 0.513 2018 Aug 17 23:33:00.871 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.192 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.513
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 4.875 4.065E-03 0.102 0.149 14.856
25169 IRIDIUM 52 [+] 4.651 2018 Aug 22 01:38:18.680 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.017 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.353
41967 FLOCK 3P-1 [+] 4.643 2.484E-03 0.010 0.042 0.023
41990 FLOCK 3P-33 [+] 4.906 2018 Aug 21 19:27:15.950 2018 Aug 21 19:30:54.957 2018 Aug 21 19:34:33.968
22888 COSMOS 2266 [?] 6.053 2.240E-03 0.021 0.088 1.972
36139 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.883 2018 Aug 23 03:14:07.590 2018 Aug 23 03:14:10.125 2018 Aug 23 03:14:12.660
13923 NOAA 8 [-] 1.063 1.359E-03 0.039 0.145 7.305
34430 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.246 2018 Aug 18 12:42:06.712 2018 Aug 18 12:42:07.397 2018 Aug 18 12:42:08.081
10120 COSMOS 923 [?] 5.746 1.133E-03 0.057 0.193 9.700
25275 IRIDIUM 59 [+] 5.951 2018 Aug 23 03:12:04.950 2018 Aug 23 03:12:05.465 2018 Aug 23 03:12:05.981
27609 TRAILBLAZER 2 [-] 1.690 1.080E-03 0.035 0.064 14.477
14820 SL-14 R/B [-] 1.518 2018 Aug 18 20:08:14.657 2018 Aug 18 20:08:15.002 2018 Aug 18 20:08:15.348
43042 AEROCUBE 7B [+] 3.879 1.009E-03 0.016 0.066 0.001
43043 AEROCUBE 7C [+] 3.944 2018 Aug 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Aug 21 00:52:58.466 2018 Aug 24 06:06:51.844

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Aug 17 17:28:06 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Aug 18 00:29:19 UTC