SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Sep 18 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Sep 18 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Sep 25 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,840 Primaries, 17,706 Secondaries (28,554 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25489 STEX [-] 5.021 1.000E+00 0.000 1.746 9.982
04438 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 5.688 2019 Sep 22 20:38:53.481 2019 Sep 22 20:38:53.951 2019 Sep 22 20:38:54.420
25489 STEX [-] 6.028 1.000E+00 0.000 2.936 13.970
26442 CZ-4B DEB [-] 6.011 2019 Sep 23 20:48:24.219 2019 Sep 23 20:48:24.509 2019 Sep 23 20:48:24.798
25489 STEX [-] 6.858 1.000E+00 0.000 2.266 8.881
06160 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 7.937 2019 Sep 24 16:43:30.662 2019 Sep 24 16:43:31.164 2019 Sep 24 16:43:31.665
44069 SOYUZ-MS 12 [+] 1.497 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44455 PROGRESS-MS 12 [+] 1.497 2019 Sep 18 00:00:00.000 2019 Sep 18 00:00:00.000 2019 Sep 25 00:00:00.000
44069 SOYUZ-MS 12 [+] 1.497 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44437 SOYUZ-MS 13 [+] 1.497 2019 Sep 18 00:00:00.000 2019 Sep 18 00:00:00.000 2019 Sep 25 00:00:00.000
25489 STEX [-] 0.456 1.000E+00 0.000 2.636 14.469
29050 FORMOSAT-3 FM3 [P] 1.158 2019 Sep 18 07:05:32.792 2019 Sep 18 07:05:33.086 2019 Sep 18 07:05:33.379
25489 STEX [-] 2.328 1.000E+00 0.000 1.328 14.732
05154 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 2.883 2019 Sep 20 04:01:08.096 2019 Sep 20 04:01:08.423 2019 Sep 20 04:01:08.750
25489 STEX [-] 2.650 1.000E+00 0.000 1.749 2.585
38142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.032 2019 Sep 20 11:44:49.968 2019 Sep 20 11:44:51.780 2019 Sep 20 11:44:53.592
25489 STEX [-] 2.581 3.989E-01 0.863 3.480 2.595
38142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.962 2019 Sep 20 10:05:19.348 2019 Sep 20 10:05:20.732 2019 Sep 20 10:05:22.115
25489 STEX [-] 3.127 3.852E-01 1.098 3.265 13.782
39610 ERS 1 DEB [-] 3.117 2019 Sep 20 23:11:04.772 2019 Sep 20 23:11:05.047 2019 Sep 20 23:11:05.322

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Sep 18 01:47:38 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Sep 18 04:54:39 UTC