SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Apr 20 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Apr 20 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Apr 27 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 6,820 Primaries, 20,625 Secondaries (49,871 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
46685 STARLINK-1781 [+] 2.938 3.855E-02 0.003 0.010 4.645
47149 STARLINK-1862 [+] 2.712 2021 Apr 23 07:05:58.899 2021 Apr 23 07:05:59.976 2021 Apr 23 07:06:01.052
45555 STARLINK-1327 [+] 4.988 4.455E-03 0.008 0.030 6.960
46345 STARLINK-1767 [+] 4.930 2021 Apr 24 15:52:05.207 2021 Apr 24 15:52:05.925 2021 Apr 24 15:52:06.644
45570 STARLINK-1376 [+] 6.607 3.386E-03 0.010 0.030 11.395
47124 STARLINK-1785 [+] 5.914 2021 Apr 26 11:56:21.451 2021 Apr 26 11:56:21.890 2021 Apr 26 11:56:22.328
21397 OKEAN-3 [?] 2.495 3.046E-03 0.039 0.113 11.851
42833 OBJECT J [+] 1.961 2021 Apr 22 08:44:20.168 2021 Apr 22 08:44:20.589 2021 Apr 22 08:44:21.011
46336 STARLINK-1738 [+] 1.744 2.992E-03 0.009 0.037 4.644
47597 STARLINK-2002 [+] 1.850 2021 Apr 22 02:23:33.799 2021 Apr 22 02:23:34.876 2021 Apr 22 02:23:35.953
46506 NETSAT-1 [+] 1.250 2.892E-03 0.009 0.038 4.385
47959 OBJECT AD [-] 0.693 2021 Apr 21 03:19:20.633 2021 Apr 21 03:19:21.773 2021 Apr 21 03:19:22.913
47983 STARLINK-2289 [+] 7.325 2.888E-03 0.009 0.039 0.002
47985 STARLINK-2308 [+] 7.325 2021 Apr 27 11:10:31.843 2021 Apr 27 11:47:50.259 2021 Apr 27 12:00:00.000
07272 COSMOS 648 [?] 5.610 2.645E-03 0.013 0.021 13.999
10875 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.477 2021 Apr 26 02:56:54.764 2021 Apr 26 02:56:55.121 2021 Apr 26 02:56:55.478
13243 COSMOS 1372 [?] 5.413 2.170E-03 0.063 0.114 14.151
21089 COSMOS 2123 & RS-12/13 [-] 5.244 2021 Apr 25 04:35:47.363 2021 Apr 25 04:35:47.716 2021 Apr 25 04:35:48.069
27843 MOST [+] 6.712 2.024E-03 0.049 0.142 11.548
19120 SL-16 R/B [-] 7.419 2021 Apr 27 04:55:39.836 2021 Apr 27 04:55:40.269 2021 Apr 27 04:55:40.702

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.