SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Jan 19 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Jan 19 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Jan 26 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 6,132 Primaries, 19,798 Secondaries (45,678 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25634 ARGOS [?] 5.482 3.750E-01 0.002 0.009 2.447
30927 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.063 2021 Jan 23 19:25:28.991 2021 Jan 23 19:25:31.034 2021 Jan 23 19:25:33.078
07727 COSMOS 724 [?] 6.699 3.084E-02 0.012 0.031 12.251
38655 METEOR 2-17 DEB [-] 31.629 2021 Jan 25 11:08:41.322 2021 Jan 25 11:08:41.730 2021 Jan 25 11:08:42.139
25489 STEX [-] 7.164 7.745E-03 0.100 0.176 14.443
28058 CHUANGXIN 1 (CX-1) [+] 6.829 2021 Jan 25 14:10:12.832 2021 Jan 25 14:10:13.178 2021 Jan 25 14:10:13.524
46694 STARLINK-1793 [+] 5.181 6.586E-03 0.006 0.026 0.002
46704 STARLINK-1804 [+] 5.598 2021 Jan 23 23:49:54.928 2021 Jan 24 00:21:21.012 2021 Jan 24 03:15:52.154
10967 SEASAT 1 [-] 0.464 4.288E-03 0.083 0.119 14.971
34127 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 0.813 2021 Jan 19 03:01:43.188 2021 Jan 19 03:01:43.521 2021 Jan 19 03:01:43.855
40909 XW-2E [-] 0.390 3.006E-03 0.010 0.036 7.260
46813 FLOCK 4E'-1 [+] 0.330 2021 Jan 19 03:09:59.496 2021 Jan 19 03:10:00.184 2021 Jan 19 03:10:00.873
23607 UPM/LBSAT [?] 2.191 2.544E-03 0.010 0.040 5.310
27469 TITAN 4B DEB [-] 2.645 2021 Jan 20 20:26:16.589 2021 Jan 20 20:26:17.530 2021 Jan 20 20:26:18.472
10536 COSMOS 971 [?] 3.130 1.889E-03 0.054 0.105 13.912
05239 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.133 2021 Jan 21 22:08:56.776 2021 Jan 21 22:08:57.135 2021 Jan 21 22:08:57.494
07349 COSMOS 663 [?] 5.425 1.855E-03 0.030 0.111 7.216
23773 COSMOS 2327 [?] 5.428 2021 Jan 23 21:21:34.449 2021 Jan 23 21:21:35.142 2021 Jan 23 21:21:35.835
16613 SPOT 1 [-] 3.867 1.854E-03 0.101 0.143 15.094
13272 SL-14 R/B [-] 3.632 2021 Jan 22 06:36:38.636 2021 Jan 22 06:36:38.967 2021 Jan 22 06:36:39.299

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.