SOCRATES

Search Results

Search parameters:

  • NORAD Catalog Number(s): Top 25 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 25 items

Data current as of 2010 Sep 02 12:01 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2010 Sep 02 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2010 Sep 09 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,052 Primaries, 14,551 Secondaries (16,676 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 25 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
16593 COSMOS 1732 [?] 1.538 1.315E-01 0.002 0.008 14.270
07160 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 0.683 2010 Sep 02 16:55:19.953 2010 Sep 02 16:55:20.303 2010 Sep 02 16:55:20.654
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 2.043 4.340E-03 0.145 0.614 15.415
36027 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 5.753 2010 Sep 03 04:51:57.305 2010 Sep 03 04:51:57.627 2010 Sep 03 04:51:57.949
07297 COSMOS 654 [?] 1.034 3.827E-03 0.030 0.102 11.507
32174 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.432 2010 Sep 02 17:26:43.172 2010 Sep 02 17:26:43.606 2010 Sep 02 17:26:44.041
14452 METEOR 2-10 [?] 1.948 2.674E-03 0.033 0.139 14.844
29803 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.396 2010 Sep 02 22:46:01.980 2010 Sep 02 22:46:02.317 2010 Sep 02 22:46:02.654
02669 OPS 6073 (DMSP 4A F2) [?] 5.219 2.422E-03 0.030 0.126 14.922
25778 IRIDIUM 21 [+] 5.728 2010 Sep 07 02:05:46.770 2010 Sep 07 02:05:47.105 2010 Sep 07 02:05:47.440
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
26970 MOLNIYA 3-52 [?] 6.495 2.416E-03 0.026 0.090 14.104
31062 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.793 2010 Sep 08 13:38:55.317 2010 Sep 08 13:38:55.671 2010 Sep 08 13:38:56.026
33409 SJ-6F [+] 4.639 2.187E-03 0.013 0.036 0.000
36596 SJ-12 [+] 4.639 2010 Sep 02 12:00:00.000 2010 Sep 06 22:28:14.131 2010 Sep 09 12:00:00.000
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 3.955 1.862E-03 0.039 0.166 14.843
30161 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.174 2010 Sep 05 06:02:41.322 2010 Sep 05 06:02:41.659 2010 Sep 05 06:02:41.996
25908 GLOBALSTAR M050 [+] 7.280 1.739E-03 0.041 0.161 12.864
29288 SL-8 DEB [-] 12.732 2010 Sep 08 10:29:08.351 2010 Sep 08 10:29:08.739 2010 Sep 08 10:29:09.127
05560 ASTEX 1 [?] 4.872 1.728E-03 0.047 0.199 14.891
20865 CZ-4 DEB [-] 5.016 2010 Sep 06 04:52:22.165 2010 Sep 06 04:52:22.500 2010 Sep 06 04:52:22.836
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
26080 PICOSAT 1 & 2 [TETHERED] [?] 4.047 1.531E-03 0.109 0.399 12.656
36922 METEOR 2-5 DEB [-] 4.880 2010 Sep 05 05:59:55.213 2010 Sep 05 05:59:55.607 2010 Sep 05 05:59:56.001
12319 COSMOS 1249 [?] 7.548 1.397E-03 0.084 0.288 11.602
15085 COSMOS 1579 [?] 7.422 2010 Sep 08 23:57:12.789 2010 Sep 08 23:57:13.220 2010 Sep 08 23:57:13.650
26094 PICOSAT 6 [?] 1.839 1.147E-03 0.015 0.062 14.724
29139 THOR BURNER 2A DEB [-] 3.582 2010 Sep 04 00:17:10.243 2010 Sep 04 00:17:10.582 2010 Sep 04 00:17:10.922
25260 SPOT 4 [+] 2.942 9.814E-04 0.059 0.249 14.659
13022 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 4.876 2010 Sep 05 03:27:26.148 2010 Sep 05 03:27:26.489 2010 Sep 05 03:27:26.829
06173 TRIAD 1 [?] 5.833 9.261E-04 0.070 0.283 14.255
06061 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.823 2010 Sep 07 22:39:29.867 2010 Sep 07 22:39:30.217 2010 Sep 07 22:39:30.568
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
10744 COSMOS 996 [?] 5.805 7.689E-04 0.036 0.151 14.719
31840 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 20.539 2010 Sep 07 07:42:02.238 2010 Sep 07 07:42:02.578 2010 Sep 07 07:42:02.917
25171 IRIDIUM 54 [+] 5.395 7.465E-04 0.055 0.216 13.656
23282 SL-16 DEB [-] 5.753 2010 Sep 06 17:22:20.931 2010 Sep 06 17:22:21.297 2010 Sep 06 17:22:21.662
07297 COSMOS 654 [?] 6.865 6.152E-04 0.098 0.362 12.565
21153 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.680 2010 Sep 08 13:23:33.285 2010 Sep 08 13:23:33.682 2010 Sep 08 13:23:34.079
11288 METEOR 2-4 [?] 1.720 5.570E-04 0.082 0.270 11.111
31667 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.277 2010 Sep 03 14:01:04.891 2010 Sep 03 14:01:05.340 2010 Sep 03 14:01:05.789
17066 COSMOS 1791 [?] 6.279 5.390E-04 0.040 0.114 9.210
26506 COSMOS 1249 COOLANT [-] 7.066 2010 Sep 07 15:10:40.590 2010 Sep 07 15:10:41.132 2010 Sep 07 15:10:41.675
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
09903 METEOR 1-27 [?] 1.510 5.188E-04 0.075 0.313 14.598
30397 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.039 2010 Sep 03 10:06:22.964 2010 Sep 03 10:06:23.306 2010 Sep 03 10:06:23.648
25291 IRIDIUM 68 [+] 4.234 5.089E-04 0.068 0.257 12.945
34131 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.936 2010 Sep 05 14:05:45.184 2010 Sep 05 14:05:45.569 2010 Sep 05 14:05:45.955
27372 IRIDIUM 91 [+] 4.863 5.075E-04 0.065 0.272 14.774
30819 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.646 2010 Sep 06 07:56:34.017 2010 Sep 06 07:56:34.355 2010 Sep 06 07:56:34.693
19531 NOAA 11 [-] 5.966 4.723E-04 0.062 0.261 14.851
34724 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.131 2010 Sep 07 07:04:15.146 2010 Sep 07 07:04:15.482 2010 Sep 07 07:04:15.818
03158 COSMOS 209 [?] 6.747 4.371E-04 0.082 0.324 13.666
31812 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 14.468 2010 Sep 08 19:15:56.214 2010 Sep 08 19:15:56.579 2010 Sep 08 19:15:56.944

25 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, with the following codes:
    • [+] = Operational
    • [-] = Nonoperational/Debris
    • [P] = Partially Operational
    • [B] = Backup/Standby
    • [S] = Spare
    • [?] = Unknown
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set to one (AR=1, no orientation is necessary). If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2009 May 26
Current system time: 2010 September 02 14:38:34 UTC