SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Mar 01 08:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Mar 01 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Mar 08 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,519 Primaries, 15,030 Secondaries (18,353 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 6.013 2.022E-02 0.067 0.280 15.464
28498 PARASOL [+] 6.453 2015 Mar 06 21:53:38.092 2015 Mar 06 21:53:38.415 2015 Mar 06 21:53:38.738
16291 COSMOS 1704 [?] 2.533 8.755E-03 0.011 0.045 14.684
30109 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.705 2015 Mar 02 08:19:51.570 2015 Mar 02 08:19:51.911 2015 Mar 02 08:19:52.251
09443 COSMOS 858 [?] 6.823 3.080E-03 0.032 0.126 13.523
25104 IRIDIUM 45 [+] 6.676 2015 Mar 07 05:06:50.214 2015 Mar 07 05:06:50.583 2015 Mar 07 05:06:50.953
25874 GLOBALSTAR M043 [-] 8.256 2.730E-03 0.033 0.129 12.302
20129 SL-14 DEB [-] 5.306 2015 Mar 06 04:11:32.275 2015 Mar 06 04:11:32.681 2015 Mar 06 04:11:33.087
25578 IRIDIUM 11 [+] 6.344 2.485E-03 0.029 0.123 14.910
19359 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.625 2015 Mar 06 20:51:52.718 2015 Mar 06 20:51:53.053 2015 Mar 06 20:51:53.388
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
33314 RAPIDEYE 1 [+] 5.290 1.630E-03 0.017 0.038 6.515
33498 STARS (KUKAI) [+] 6.172 2015 Mar 06 12:07:03.416 2015 Mar 06 12:07:04.183 2015 Mar 06 12:07:04.951
07433 COSMOS 676 [?] 4.902 1.494E-03 0.021 0.077 12.358
34032 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.342 2015 Mar 04 11:51:51.955 2015 Mar 04 11:51:52.360 2015 Mar 04 11:51:52.764
02674 DIADEME 1 [?] 6.175 1.438E-03 0.015 0.047 10.367
35097 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.977 2015 Mar 07 03:20:12.120 2015 Mar 07 03:20:12.602 2015 Mar 07 03:20:13.085
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 2.911 1.389E-03 0.257 1.087 14.227
14470 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 2.031 2015 Mar 01 13:01:20.967 2015 Mar 01 13:01:21.310 2015 Mar 01 13:01:21.653
04419 METEOR 1-5 [?] 4.366 8.718E-04 0.058 0.243 14.754
40264 CZ-2C DEB [-] 3.715 2015 Mar 04 13:25:36.430 2015 Mar 04 13:25:36.769 2015 Mar 04 13:25:37.107

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 March 01 10:54:39 UTC