SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Apr 28 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,906 Primaries, 16,449 Secondaries (21,960 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41864 SOYUZ-MS 03 [+] 1.464 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42682 SOYUZ MS-04 [+] 1.464 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
41864 SOYUZ-MS 03 [+] 1.464 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42681 CYGNUS OA-7 [+] 1.464 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
42056 PROGRESS-MS 05 [+] 1.464 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42681 CYGNUS OA-7 [+] 1.464 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
42681 CYGNUS OA-7 [+] 1.464 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42682 SOYUZ MS-04 [+] 1.464 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
42056 PROGRESS-MS 05 [+] 1.464 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42682 SOYUZ MS-04 [+] 1.464 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
39208 SHIYAN 7 (SY-7) [+] 6.111 9.904E-02 0.002 0.006 0.000
39357 SHIYAN 7 DEB [-] 6.451 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 02 23:12:41.639 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
27842 DTUSAT [-] 5.716 3.662E-02 0.003 0.011 0.000
27846 AAU CUBESAT [-] 4.871 2017 Apr 28 00:00:00.000 2017 May 01 14:47:42.543 2017 May 05 00:00:00.000
25291 IRIDIUM 68 [+] 6.332 1.067E-02 0.014 0.058 4.704
34487 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.283 2017 May 03 05:36:43.457 2017 May 03 05:36:44.520 2017 May 03 05:36:45.583
41966 FLOCK 3P 2 [+] 4.287 3.381E-03 0.009 0.035 0.000
41967 FLOCK 3P-1 [+] 4.221 2017 Apr 30 16:41:08.956 2017 May 01 02:54:29.092 2017 May 01 13:07:06.320
05731 METEOR 1-10 [?] 4.305 1.405E-03 0.059 0.149 12.594
30579 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.309 2017 May 01 05:52:21.417 2017 May 01 05:52:21.814 2017 May 01 05:52:22.211

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 April 28 10:10:54 UTC