SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Jan 23 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Jan 23 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Jan 30 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,802 Primaries, 15,776 Secondaries (20,116 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25406 COSMOS 2360 [?] 6.693 1.329E-02 0.004 0.018 3.709
38797 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.954 2017 Jan 28 23:07:35.925 2017 Jan 28 23:07:37.273 2017 Jan 28 23:07:38.622
27445 GALAXY 3C (G-3C) [+] 2.732 9.650E-03 0.065 0.273 0.002
41581 INTELSAT 31 (IS-31) [+] 4.727 2017 Jan 24 15:03:36.210 2017 Jan 24 15:48:47.568 2017 Jan 24 16:33:48.758
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 4.836 7.155E-03 0.070 0.122 14.459
24946 IRIDIUM 33 [-] 4.273 2017 Jan 26 17:04:17.878 2017 Jan 26 17:04:18.224 2017 Jan 26 17:04:18.570
13353 COSMOS 1386 [?] 6.579 3.823E-03 0.018 0.060 11.459
30797 THEMIS D [+] 7.040 2017 Jan 28 23:22:55.496 2017 Jan 28 23:22:55.932 2017 Jan 28 23:22:56.369
25432 IRIDIUM 76 [+] 6.720 2.757E-03 0.045 0.072 14.661
41425 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 6.448 2017 Jan 29 03:14:43.869 2017 Jan 29 03:14:44.210 2017 Jan 29 03:14:44.551
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25414 ORBCOMM FM18 [+] 3.140 2.700E-03 0.037 0.091 12.830
16012 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.656 2017 Jan 25 23:45:51.129 2017 Jan 25 23:45:51.518 2017 Jan 25 23:45:51.908
25578 IRIDIUM 11 [+] 4.355 2.133E-03 0.034 0.123 8.424
22443 SL-16 DEB [-] 5.258 2017 Jan 26 17:51:58.021 2017 Jan 26 17:51:58.614 2017 Jan 26 17:51:59.207
25468 IRIDIUM 81 [+] 6.258 2.058E-03 0.056 0.155 11.965
15032 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.330 2017 Jan 28 12:56:53.069 2017 Jan 28 12:56:53.487 2017 Jan 28 12:56:53.904
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 6.619 1.857E-03 0.119 0.452 6.935
40249 IRIDIUM 47 DEB [-] 6.739 2017 Jan 28 12:24:52.539 2017 Jan 28 12:24:53.257 2017 Jan 28 12:24:53.975
15099 METEOR 2-11 [?] 3.249 1.639E-03 0.073 0.103 14.702
35167 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.369 2017 Jan 25 10:53:11.147 2017 Jan 25 10:53:11.487 2017 Jan 25 10:53:11.827

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 January 23 12:32:18 UTC