SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Apr 19 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Apr 19 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Apr 26 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,236 Primaries, 16,971 Secondaries (23,669 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
04419 METEOR 1-5 [?] 5.638 8.572E-02 0.009 0.016 14.363
31214 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.212 2018 Apr 24 13:20:05.724 2018 Apr 24 13:20:06.072 2018 Apr 24 13:20:06.420
10514 METEOR 2-3 [?] 2.289 3.874E-03 0.039 0.081 13.808
30922 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.204 2018 Apr 21 05:45:18.321 2018 Apr 21 05:45:18.683 2018 Apr 21 05:45:19.045
43279 WEINA 1B [+] 0.826 3.647E-03 0.008 0.035 0.001
43338 OBJECT H [-] 0.157 2018 Apr 19 12:00:00.000 2018 Apr 19 12:57:03.234 2018 Apr 26 12:00:00.000
06965 COSMOS 614 [?] 3.015 2.983E-03 0.024 0.035 14.927
38127 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.440 2018 Apr 22 04:36:08.092 2018 Apr 22 04:36:08.427 2018 Apr 22 04:36:08.762
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 3.656 2.458E-03 0.198 0.796 5.196
26198 CZ-4B DEB [-] 3.964 2018 Apr 22 19:14:28.378 2018 Apr 22 19:14:29.329 2018 Apr 22 19:14:30.279
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
12319 COSMOS 1249 [?] 4.055 2.109E-03 0.039 0.141 8.247
03213 SCOUT A DEB [-] 4.170 2018 Apr 23 04:03:01.318 2018 Apr 23 04:03:01.924 2018 Apr 23 04:03:02.530
27386 ENVISAT [-] 3.240 1.684E-03 0.189 0.277 14.865
22676 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.201 2018 Apr 22 07:42:17.587 2018 Apr 22 07:42:17.923 2018 Apr 22 07:42:18.259
25758 IRS-P4 (OCEANSAT) [-] 3.472 1.121E-03 0.086 0.135 14.779
02118 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.821 2018 Apr 22 07:08:10.507 2018 Apr 22 07:08:10.846 2018 Apr 22 07:08:11.184
05105 COSMOS 402 [?] 0.739 9.039E-04 0.061 0.213 9.971
27684 ARIANE 44L R/B [-] 1.482 2018 Apr 19 17:58:09.083 2018 Apr 19 17:58:09.584 2018 Apr 19 17:58:10.085
27451 IRIDIUM 98 [+] 2.340 8.541E-04 0.078 0.135 14.436
39640 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 2.861 2018 Apr 21 19:08:04.234 2018 Apr 21 19:08:04.580 2018 Apr 21 19:08:04.926

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 April 20 02:50:58 UTC