SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Aug 01 16:01 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Aug 01 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Aug 08 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,471 Primaries, 14,972 Secondaries (18,847 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
04953 OPS 5268 (DMSP 5A F3) [?] 1.508 1.414E-02 0.041 0.168 14.292
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 1.848 2014 Aug 02 22:54:22.767 2014 Aug 02 22:54:23.117 2014 Aug 02 22:54:23.466
24837 IRIDIUM 12 [+] 6.266 4.513E-03 0.023 0.085 12.726
33912 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.742 2014 Aug 07 11:07:48.470 2014 Aug 07 11:07:48.863 2014 Aug 07 11:07:49.256
24965 IRIDIUM 19 [+] 6.207 3.481E-03 0.025 0.104 14.924
12283 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 7.749 2014 Aug 07 16:26:39.602 2014 Aug 07 16:26:39.937 2014 Aug 07 16:26:40.272
17303 COSMOS 1814 [?] 3.331 3.476E-03 0.025 0.093 13.126
13649 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.787 2014 Aug 04 01:45:02.263 2014 Aug 04 01:45:02.644 2014 Aug 04 01:45:03.024
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 2.139 2.903E-03 0.210 0.636 9.657
10144 DELTA 1 R/B(1) [-] 0.974 2014 Aug 01 21:52:56.452 2014 Aug 01 21:52:56.966 2014 Aug 01 21:52:57.479
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
20527 COSMOS 2061 [?] 0.503 2.719E-03 0.019 0.080 14.640
19150 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 0.226 2014 Aug 01 15:52:43.594 2014 Aug 01 15:52:43.936 2014 Aug 01 15:52:44.277
09637 COSMOS 887 [?] 5.183 2.281E-03 0.026 0.111 14.643
13065 COSMOS 1339 [?] 5.288 2014 Aug 06 04:02:40.755 2014 Aug 06 04:02:41.097 2014 Aug 06 04:02:41.438
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 4.494 1.986E-03 0.087 0.366 14.821
08294 SL-3 R/B [-] 4.534 2014 Aug 05 07:41:53.134 2014 Aug 05 07:41:53.470 2014 Aug 05 07:41:53.806
20045 COSMOS 2026 [?] 4.452 1.849E-03 0.024 0.092 12.776
26505 COSMOS 1249 COOLANT [-] 6.772 2014 Aug 05 01:20:10.361 2014 Aug 05 01:20:10.752 2014 Aug 05 01:20:11.144
11288 METEOR 2-4 [?] 3.783 1.536E-03 0.044 0.183 14.610
30064 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.501 2014 Aug 04 23:52:33.625 2014 Aug 04 23:52:33.967 2014 Aug 04 23:52:34.309

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 August 02 00:22:35 UTC