SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Oct 24 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Oct 24 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Oct 31 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,502 Primaries, 15,047 Secondaries (18,350 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
22823 SPOT 3 [-] 6.810 1.664E-02 0.017 0.073 14.859
14407 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 7.495 2014 Oct 31 07:43:41.181 2014 Oct 31 07:43:41.517 2014 Oct 31 07:43:41.853
27386 ENVISAT [-] 1.977 1.112E-02 0.037 0.157 14.890
09907 SL-3 DEB [-] 3.805 2014 Oct 26 10:44:43.387 2014 Oct 26 10:44:43.723 2014 Oct 26 10:44:44.058
06256 METEOR 1-13 [?] 1.257 5.967E-03 0.022 0.093 14.852
37635 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.402 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.307 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.644 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.980
25319 IRIDIUM 69 [-] 2.855 5.193E-03 0.020 0.085 14.847
38838 METEOR 2-6 DEB [-] 4.090 2014 Oct 27 07:40:47.253 2014 Oct 27 07:40:47.589 2014 Oct 27 07:40:47.926
25346 IRIDIUM 75 [+] 3.649 3.630E-03 0.026 0.095 12.665
33913 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.413 2014 Oct 28 03:57:21.115 2014 Oct 28 03:57:21.510 2014 Oct 28 03:57:21.904
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
16613 SPOT 1 [-] 4.889 3.055E-03 0.043 0.163 13.247
39654 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 5.362 2014 Oct 29 08:47:29.925 2014 Oct 29 08:47:30.303 2014 Oct 29 08:47:30.680
07274 METEOR 1-17 [?] 2.805 2.726E-03 0.033 0.138 14.770
32142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 17.691 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.209 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.547 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.886
28057 CBERS 2 (ZY 1B) [-] 5.421 2.367E-03 0.031 0.105 11.452
38188 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.500 2014 Oct 29 21:38:23.771 2014 Oct 29 21:38:24.208 2014 Oct 29 21:38:24.644
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 5.231 2.278E-03 0.202 0.842 15.150
37488 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.607 2014 Oct 29 16:16:43.464 2014 Oct 29 16:16:43.789 2014 Oct 29 16:16:44.114
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 4.193 2.234E-03 0.036 0.152 14.783
36997 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.117 2014 Oct 27 19:40:58.079 2014 Oct 27 19:40:58.418 2014 Oct 27 19:40:58.756

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

TLE Data Space Data
Current GPS
Archives EOP
Documentation Space Weather
SATCAT Columns
Boxscore Software
SOCRATES
Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
Follow CelesTrak on Twitter @TSKelso
Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 October 25 00:34:09 UTC