SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Jul 24 16:01 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Jul 24 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Jul 31 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,471 Primaries, 14,958 Secondaries (18,749 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27375 IRIDIUM 95 [+] 6.425 7.124E-02 0.008 0.030 14.632
22081 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.730 2014 Jul 30 21:11:15.741 2014 Jul 30 21:11:16.082 2014 Jul 30 21:11:16.424
18122 COSMOS 1860 [?] 3.743 4.616E-03 0.025 0.100 13.576
12198 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.216 2014 Jul 27 03:38:33.191 2014 Jul 27 03:38:33.559 2014 Jul 27 03:38:33.928
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 0.658 3.978E-03 0.060 0.222 12.788
35805 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 1.317 2014 Jul 24 19:16:21.902 2014 Jul 24 19:16:22.293 2014 Jul 24 19:16:22.683
24906 IRIDIUM 23 [S] 2.027 3.318E-03 0.033 0.082 7.589
34995 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.889 2014 Jul 26 10:44:33.818 2014 Jul 26 10:44:34.476 2014 Jul 26 10:44:35.135
08519 METEOR 1-23 [?] 5.199 3.248E-03 0.030 0.126 14.798
37924 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.581 2014 Jul 28 09:12:31.322 2014 Jul 28 09:12:31.660 2014 Jul 28 09:12:31.998
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27453 NOAA 17 [-] 3.036 2.768E-03 0.031 0.090 9.585
37389 X-SAT [+] 3.110 2014 Jul 27 12:28:38.952 2014 Jul 27 12:28:39.473 2014 Jul 27 12:28:39.995
04588 COSMOS 372 [?] 7.198 2.228E-03 0.037 0.151 14.208
25469 IRIDIUM 80 [+] 6.591 2014 Jul 30 23:00:24.196 2014 Jul 30 23:00:24.548 2014 Jul 30 23:00:24.899
24920 FORTE [+] 1.598 2.079E-03 0.037 0.149 14.126
36156 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.541 2014 Jul 24 19:07:06.604 2014 Jul 24 19:07:06.958 2014 Jul 24 19:07:07.312
27421 SPOT 5 [+] 0.177 2.059E-03 0.056 0.127 6.644
30173 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.318 2014 Jul 24 14:11:59.620 2014 Jul 24 14:12:00.372 2014 Jul 24 14:12:01.125
24796 IRIDIUM 4 [-] 1.237 1.869E-03 0.034 0.139 14.294
00152 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 2.316 2014 Jul 25 17:23:30.405 2014 Jul 25 17:23:30.755 2014 Jul 25 17:23:31.105

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 July 24 17:42:58 UTC