SOCRATES

Search Results

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items

Data current as of 2010 Sep 08 12:01 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2010 Sep 08 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2010 Sep 15 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,055 Primaries, 14,589 Secondaries (16,811 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
25160 CELESTIS-02 & TAURUS R/B [?] 6.481 5.945E-03 0.012 0.018 1.299
12164 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 7.354 2010 Sep 13 22:27:00.950 2010 Sep 13 22:27:04.798 2010 Sep 13 22:27:08.646
25108 IRIDIUM 49 [+] 5.833 5.708E-03 0.019 0.080 14.575
34024 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.933 2010 Sep 13 04:14:13.567 2010 Sep 13 04:14:13.910 2010 Sep 13 04:14:14.253
01510 DODECAPOLE 2 [?] 6.853 3.502E-03 0.032 0.133 14.323
30394 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.307 2010 Sep 14 16:16:10.318 2010 Sep 14 16:16:10.667 2010 Sep 14 16:16:11.016
07209 METEOR 1-16 [?] 5.859 3.298E-03 0.045 0.082 4.090
33772 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 5.821 2010 Sep 13 09:35:38.624 2010 Sep 13 09:35:39.846 2010 Sep 13 09:35:41.069
06850 COSMOS 593 [?] 8.036 2.532E-03 0.009 0.034 12.403
21783 COSMOS 2169 [?] 8.322 2010 Sep 14 20:52:51.217 2010 Sep 14 20:52:51.621 2010 Sep 14 20:52:52.024
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
24903 IRIDIUM 26 [+] 2.519 2.382E-03 0.030 0.125 14.602
34884 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.306 2010 Sep 09 22:31:27.459 2010 Sep 09 22:31:27.801 2010 Sep 09 22:31:28.143
15359 COSMOS 1605 [?] 5.729 2.180E-03 0.023 0.084 12.719
31692 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.524 2010 Sep 13 09:03:47.902 2010 Sep 13 09:03:48.295 2010 Sep 13 09:03:48.688
27386 ENVISAT [+] 3.164 1.944E-03 0.113 0.401 12.174
07434 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.502 2010 Sep 11 08:26:12.446 2010 Sep 11 08:26:12.856 2010 Sep 11 08:26:13.265
07531 INTASAT [?] 5.875 1.793E-03 0.050 0.129 7.664
25624 GLOBALSTAR M038 [+] 5.398 2010 Sep 12 12:00:41.930 2010 Sep 12 12:00:42.582 2010 Sep 12 12:00:43.235
25623 GLOBALSTAR M036 [+] 7.404 1.731E-03 0.048 0.189 13.212
23447 SL-14 R/B [-] 8.208 2010 Sep 14 19:09:26.443 2010 Sep 14 19:09:26.822 2010 Sep 14 19:09:27.200

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, with the following codes:
    • [+] = Operational
    • [-] = Nonoperational/Debris
    • [P] = Partially Operational
    • [B] = Backup/Standby
    • [S] = Spare
    • [?] = Unknown
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set to one (AR=1, no orientation is necessary). If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2009 May 26
Current system time: 2010 September 09 00:50:41 UTC