SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Mar 30 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Mar 30 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Apr 06 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,906 Primaries, 15,973 Secondaries (21,085 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24904 IRIDIUM 25 [+] 5.386 5.226E-02 0.008 0.022 11.450
37863 COSMOS 1331 DEB [-] 13.579 2017 Apr 03 07:02:29.578 2017 Apr 03 07:02:30.014 2017 Apr 03 07:02:30.451
27386 ENVISAT [-] 3.879 1.015E-02 0.040 0.162 4.253
31690 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.328 2017 Apr 01 18:04:54.921 2017 Apr 01 18:04:56.096 2017 Apr 01 18:04:57.271
39208 SHIYAN 7 (SY-7) [+] 1.853 3.185E-03 0.009 0.037 0.000
39357 SHIYAN 7 DEB [-] 1.921 2017 Mar 30 00:00:00.000 2017 Mar 30 17:55:51.117 2017 Apr 03 02:43:27.390
14154 HILAT [?] 6.799 2.382E-03 0.013 0.035 11.994
35097 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 16.419 2017 Apr 04 18:01:57.379 2017 Apr 04 18:01:57.796 2017 Apr 04 18:01:58.212
40037 PERSEUS-M2 [+] 3.283 1.802E-03 0.031 0.044 15.061
16263 SL-14 R/B [-] 3.131 2017 Apr 01 00:31:14.973 2017 Apr 01 00:31:15.305 2017 Apr 01 00:31:15.637
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
26080 PICOSAT 1 & 2 [TETHERED] [?] 7.260 1.611E-03 0.160 0.258 14.622
34006 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.326 2017 Apr 05 04:17:36.697 2017 Apr 05 04:17:37.039 2017 Apr 05 04:17:37.380
01293 OSCAR 3 (OSCAR III) [-] 2.831 1.266E-03 0.042 0.177 2.211
07727 COSMOS 724 [?] 2.630 2017 Mar 31 09:42:38.281 2017 Mar 31 09:42:40.541 2017 Mar 31 09:42:42.802
07349 COSMOS 663 [?] 4.622 1.195E-03 0.029 0.062 13.494
00337 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 4.414 2017 Apr 02 07:57:50.555 2017 Apr 02 07:57:50.926 2017 Apr 02 07:57:51.296
27375 IRIDIUM 95 [+] 4.091 1.172E-03 0.073 0.105 14.880
37026 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.111 2017 Apr 01 23:34:58.481 2017 Apr 01 23:34:58.817 2017 Apr 01 23:34:59.153
25285 IRIDIUM 62 [+] 7.580 1.146E-03 0.074 0.106 14.841
26300 CZ-4B DEB [-] 7.563 2017 Apr 05 11:45:19.774 2017 Apr 05 11:45:20.111 2017 Apr 05 11:45:20.448

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 March 30 06:43:28 UTC