SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Jan 25 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Jan 25 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Feb 01 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,514 Primaries, 15,086 Secondaries (18,843 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
11692 COSMOS 1157 [?] 2.153 2.338E-02 0.003 0.011 11.618
35606 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.107 2015 Jan 25 22:12:39.335 2015 Jan 25 22:12:39.765 2015 Jan 25 22:12:40.195
14506 OPS 1294 (DMSP 5D-2 F7) [?] 7.220 3.657E-03 0.023 0.090 13.698
16969 NOAA 10 [-] 6.225 2015 Jan 31 18:45:44.563 2015 Jan 31 18:45:44.928 2015 Jan 31 18:45:45.293
26080 PICOSAT 1 & 2 [TETHERED] [?] 1.667 3.106E-03 0.072 0.297 14.614
31976 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.472 2015 Jan 25 21:18:25.389 2015 Jan 25 21:18:25.731 2015 Jan 25 21:18:26.072
17070 POLAR BEAR [?] 8.022 2.970E-03 0.019 0.080 14.582
10732 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.565 2015 Feb 01 02:56:47.774 2015 Feb 01 02:56:48.117 2015 Feb 01 02:56:48.460
08845 METEOR 1-25 [?] 7.428 2.132E-03 0.042 0.136 10.701
34823 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.162 2015 Jan 31 22:51:46.210 2015 Jan 31 22:51:46.677 2015 Jan 31 22:51:47.145
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
36036 SMOS [+] 6.800 1.980E-03 0.035 0.073 5.615
16864 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.533 2015 Jan 31 19:56:40.059 2015 Jan 31 19:56:40.949 2015 Jan 31 19:56:41.840
35932 SWISSCUBE [+] 5.149 1.852E-03 0.012 0.049 14.850
39899 SL-16 DEB [-] 8.885 2015 Jan 30 10:37:12.505 2015 Jan 30 10:37:12.842 2015 Jan 30 10:37:13.179
07718 COSMOS 723 [?] 6.435 1.774E-03 0.040 0.165 14.456
30143 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.647 2015 Jan 30 22:47:39.332 2015 Jan 30 22:47:39.678 2015 Jan 30 22:47:40.023
27421 SPOT 5 [+] 0.270 1.632E-03 0.048 0.185 13.290
29094 SL-16 DEB [-] 12.600 2015 Jan 25 20:29:39.751 2015 Jan 25 20:29:40.127 2015 Jan 25 20:29:40.503
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 0.773 1.333E-03 0.038 0.160 14.798
34307 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.197 2015 Jan 25 15:48:09.715 2015 Jan 25 15:48:10.052 2015 Jan 25 15:48:10.390

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 January 26 00:17:04 UTC