SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2013 May 25 12:30 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2013 May 25 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2013 Jun 01 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,262 Primaries, 13,991 Secondaries (15,690 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
10820 OPS 6182 (DMSP 5D-1 F2) [?] 7.096 6.690E-03 0.018 0.075 14.916
24906 IRIDIUM 23 [S] 7.748 2013 Jun 01 07:13:18.082 2013 Jun 01 07:13:18.417 2013 Jun 01 07:13:18.752
25078 IRIDIUM 44 [-] 6.520 6.597E-03 0.018 0.073 13.862
34482 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.119 2013 May 30 23:21:58.895 2013 May 30 23:21:59.255 2013 May 30 23:21:59.616
24944 IRIDIUM 29 [+] 3.172 5.898E-03 0.019 0.079 14.693
34425 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.897 2013 May 27 16:47:39.301 2013 May 27 16:47:39.641 2013 May 27 16:47:39.982
13949 COSMOS 1448 [?] 5.239 3.604E-03 0.027 0.042 2.442
04767 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 5.262 2013 May 29 10:52:23.106 2013 May 29 10:52:25.153 2013 May 29 10:52:27.200
12320 COSMOS 1250 [?] 6.137 2.757E-03 0.008 0.034 13.972
20736 COSMOS 2091 [?] 6.151 2013 May 30 07:10:08.733 2013 May 30 07:10:09.091 2013 May 30 07:10:09.449
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
19038 COSMOS 1937 [?] 2.738 2.594E-03 0.015 0.062 14.276
35287 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.089 2013 May 27 05:17:27.006 2013 May 27 05:17:27.357 2013 May 27 05:17:27.707
25860 OKEAN-O [?] 1.479 2.090E-03 0.039 0.165 15.040
34791 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.472 2013 May 26 07:35:40.215 2013 May 26 07:35:40.547 2013 May 26 07:35:40.879
08860 P 76-5 [?] 1.348 1.165E-03 0.120 0.489 14.011
29852 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.341 2013 May 26 04:50:12.871 2013 May 26 04:50:13.226 2013 May 26 04:50:13.581
22487 COSMOS 2233 [?] 6.883 1.105E-03 0.030 0.126 14.483
36223 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 25.040 2013 May 31 17:13:36.455 2013 May 31 17:13:36.800 2013 May 31 17:13:37.145
07714 METEOR 1-21 [?] 1.108 1.058E-03 0.068 0.278 14.215
13777 IRAS [-] 1.617 2013 May 26 06:42:21.025 2013 May 26 06:42:21.376 2013 May 26 06:42:21.727

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2009 May 26
Current system time: 2013 May 26 00:12:54 UTC