SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Sep 28 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Sep 28 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Oct 05 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,735 Primaries, 15,635 Secondaries (19,851 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 2.342 4.517E-03 0.157 0.546 8.833
31574 GLOBALSTAR M072 [+] 0.401 2016 Sep 28 12:50:31.513 2016 Sep 28 12:50:32.075 2016 Sep 28 12:50:32.638
18960 IRS-1A [-] 3.768 3.559E-03 0.036 0.064 14.242
12726 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 3.754 2016 Oct 01 21:25:56.405 2016 Oct 01 21:25:56.756 2016 Oct 01 21:25:57.107
25289 IRIDIUM 66 [+] 5.362 3.327E-03 0.025 0.106 1.614
34301 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.420 2016 Oct 01 14:35:44.238 2016 Oct 01 14:35:47.335 2016 Oct 01 14:35:50.432
00694 ATLAS CENTAUR 2 [?] 3.399 2.240E-03 0.040 0.121 11.386
33772 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 3.591 2016 Oct 01 10:57:57.561 2016 Oct 01 10:57:58.000 2016 Oct 01 10:57:58.439
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 3.775 1.818E-03 0.161 0.341 14.036
39930 PEGASUS DEB [-] 4.097 2016 Oct 01 01:29:00.687 2016 Oct 01 01:29:01.043 2016 Oct 01 01:29:01.398
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
06267 COSMOS 532 [?] 8.051 1.770E-03 0.010 0.042 3.479
08401 THORAD DELTA 1 DEB [-] 7.686 2016 Oct 03 17:00:10.186 2016 Oct 03 17:00:11.623 2016 Oct 03 17:00:13.060
10514 METEOR 2-3 [?] 0.125 1.737E-03 0.068 0.103 14.713
32092 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.865 2016 Sep 28 04:31:00.604 2016 Sep 28 04:31:00.944 2016 Sep 28 04:31:01.284
12442 COSMOS 1269 [?] 6.933 1.212E-03 0.022 0.093 0.964
36061 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 8.695 2016 Oct 04 15:18:02.082 2016 Oct 04 15:18:07.268 2016 Oct 04 15:18:12.454
25980 ORBCOMM FM30 [+] 2.216 1.093E-03 0.064 0.198 10.840
27372 IRIDIUM 91 [+] 2.416 2016 Sep 30 07:30:39.854 2016 Sep 30 07:30:40.315 2016 Sep 30 07:30:40.776
20826 METEOR 2-20 [?] 4.611 9.876E-04 0.060 0.208 8.941
38110 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.629 2016 Oct 02 17:07:44.522 2016 Oct 02 17:07:45.081 2016 Oct 02 17:07:45.640

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 September 28 13:41:55 UTC