SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Aug 24 15:36 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Aug 24 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Aug 31 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,727 Primaries, 15,606 Secondaries (19,582 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
09903 METEOR 1-27 [?] 3.650 1.827E-02 0.013 0.052 3.214
29844 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.046 2016 Aug 26 14:06:59.526 2016 Aug 26 14:07:01.082 2016 Aug 26 14:07:02.637
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 4.837 5.708E-03 0.073 0.239 9.971
33730 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 13.056 2016 Aug 28 07:12:59.873 2016 Aug 28 07:13:00.374 2016 Aug 28 07:13:00.875
40045 AEROCUBE 6A [+] 4.632 4.180E-03 0.008 0.032 0.006
40046 AEROCUBE 6B [+] 4.496 2016 Aug 28 21:31:23.631 2016 Aug 28 21:48:26.280 2016 Aug 28 22:05:30.877
24794 IRIDIUM 6 [+] 0.550 2.938E-03 0.027 0.113 2.095
34035 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.098 2016 Aug 25 01:10:14.097 2016 Aug 25 01:10:16.484 2016 Aug 25 01:10:18.870
39208 SHIYAN 7 (SY-7) [+] 8.497 1.686E-03 0.012 0.051 0.000
39357 SHIYAN 7 DEB [-] 7.338 2016 Aug 24 12:00:00.000 2016 Aug 31 02:45:15.035 2016 Aug 31 12:00:00.000
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 3.248 1.347E-03 0.059 0.103 14.380
40530 CZ-4B DEB [-] 2.937 2016 Aug 27 01:38:19.744 2016 Aug 27 01:38:20.092 2016 Aug 27 01:38:20.440
21418 COSMOS 2150 [?] 4.530 1.069E-03 0.077 0.153 13.980
24906 IRIDIUM 23 [+] 3.364 2016 Aug 27 20:43:37.289 2016 Aug 27 20:43:37.646 2016 Aug 27 20:43:38.004
00045 TRANSIT 2A [?] 3.298 1.054E-03 0.065 0.215 9.811
20826 METEOR 2-20 [?] 2.660 2016 Aug 27 01:31:10.188 2016 Aug 27 01:31:10.697 2016 Aug 27 01:31:11.206
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 3.094 9.278E-04 0.158 0.365 13.278
41286 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 2.842 2016 Aug 26 21:16:40.309 2016 Aug 26 21:16:40.684 2016 Aug 26 21:16:41.060
25041 IRIDIUM 40 [+] 3.040 9.273E-04 0.082 0.117 14.885
32448 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.923 2016 Aug 27 09:08:02.974 2016 Aug 27 09:08:03.310 2016 Aug 27 09:08:03.646

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 August 24 23:10:37 UTC