SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Nov 01 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Nov 01 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Nov 08 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,502 Primaries, 15,056 Secondaries (18,594 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
03266 OPS 7869 (DMSP 4B F1) [?] 6.762 1.279E-02 0.013 0.047 12.879
12553 NOAA 7 [-] 5.825 2014 Nov 06 07:15:28.489 2014 Nov 06 07:15:28.877 2014 Nov 06 07:15:29.266
28057 CBERS 2 (ZY 1B) [-] 4.634 9.143E-03 0.016 0.052 11.073
29052 FORMOSAT-3 FM2 [+] 4.940 2014 Nov 05 10:13:34.966 2014 Nov 05 10:13:35.417 2014 Nov 05 10:13:35.869
24968 IRIDIUM 37 [+] 4.542 4.810E-03 0.021 0.088 14.623
24974 SL-8 DEB [-] 5.812 2014 Nov 04 23:38:57.962 2014 Nov 04 23:38:58.303 2014 Nov 04 23:38:58.645
05731 METEOR 1-10 [?] 2.229 4.352E-03 0.026 0.108 14.498
36100 DMSP 5D-3 F18 DEB [-] 2.301 2014 Nov 02 09:02:09.428 2014 Nov 02 09:02:09.773 2014 Nov 02 09:02:10.118
10514 METEOR 2-3 [?] 4.219 3.491E-03 0.029 0.122 14.859
31553 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.297 2014 Nov 04 02:43:09.032 2014 Nov 04 02:43:09.368 2014 Nov 04 02:43:09.705
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25289 IRIDIUM 66 [+] 0.625 3.118E-03 0.026 0.108 14.393
31385 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.381 2014 Nov 01 01:56:51.598 2014 Nov 01 01:56:51.946 2014 Nov 01 01:56:52.293
07574 METEOR 1-20 [?] 4.350 2.733E-03 0.032 0.138 14.793
38147 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.193 2014 Nov 04 11:21:19.106 2014 Nov 04 11:21:19.444 2014 Nov 04 11:21:19.782
07574 METEOR 1-20 [?] 2.945 2.563E-03 0.034 0.142 14.792
29877 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.529 2014 Nov 03 01:38:04.951 2014 Nov 03 01:38:05.289 2014 Nov 03 01:38:05.627
13991 COSMOS 1452 [?] 2.461 2.396E-03 0.016 0.066 14.857
30104 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.296 2014 Nov 02 08:16:19.744 2014 Nov 02 08:16:20.080 2014 Nov 02 08:16:20.417
19256 COSMOS 1954 [?] 5.089 2.181E-03 0.067 0.283 14.871
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 5.264 2014 Nov 05 10:09:34.864 2014 Nov 05 10:09:35.199 2014 Nov 05 10:09:35.535

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 November 01 05:03:21 UTC