SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Mar 29 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Mar 29 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Apr 05 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,537 Primaries, 15,084 Secondaries (18,970 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
20439 PACSAT (AO-16) [-] 5.170 6.048E-03 0.017 0.071 14.876
25342 IRIDIUM 70 [+] 4.464 2015 Apr 02 23:38:55.413 2015 Apr 02 23:38:55.749 2015 Apr 02 23:38:56.085
39422 STSAT-3 [+] 1.856 5.623E-03 0.010 0.018 4.060
14817 SL-8 DEB [-] 3.457 2015 Mar 31 08:07:44.724 2015 Mar 31 08:07:45.955 2015 Mar 31 08:07:47.187
02807 OPS 7218 (TRANSIT 16) [?] 5.964 5.328E-03 0.009 0.038 14.402
02226 SCOUT A DEB [-] 5.393 2015 Apr 02 19:52:43.508 2015 Apr 02 19:52:43.855 2015 Apr 02 19:52:44.202
06392 METEOR 1-14 [?] 4.003 4.329E-03 0.026 0.109 14.801
36699 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.450 2015 Apr 01 17:15:38.286 2015 Apr 01 17:15:38.624 2015 Apr 01 17:15:38.961
25040 IRIDIUM 41 [+] 2.261 3.459E-03 0.026 0.100 13.458
31083 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.186 2015 Mar 31 13:03:08.095 2015 Mar 31 13:03:08.466 2015 Mar 31 13:03:08.838
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
12783 COSMOS 1299 [?] 6.267 3.165E-03 0.034 0.107 10.196
31325 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.241 2015 Apr 04 03:46:14.489 2015 Apr 04 03:46:14.979 2015 Apr 04 03:46:15.469
09481 METEOR 1-26 [?] 1.218 2.817E-03 0.031 0.129 14.682
22698 RADCAL [?] 1.782 2015 Mar 30 07:11:02.684 2015 Mar 30 07:11:03.024 2015 Mar 30 07:11:03.365
27424 AQUA [+] 2.988 2.642E-03 0.052 0.213 14.585
30997 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.250 2015 Apr 01 02:41:14.241 2015 Apr 01 02:41:14.583 2015 Apr 01 02:41:14.926
17527 MOMO-1 (MOS-1) [-] 4.156 1.988E-03 0.037 0.147 13.701
19250 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 3.773 2015 Apr 01 16:05:54.931 2015 Apr 01 16:05:55.296 2015 Apr 01 16:05:55.660
00045 TRANSIT 2A [?] 7.065 1.887E-03 0.035 0.105 9.779
11309 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.144 2015 Apr 05 05:33:03.320 2015 Apr 05 05:33:03.832 2015 Apr 05 05:33:04.343

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

TLE Data Space Data
Current GPS
Archives EOP
Documentation Space Weather
SATCAT Columns
Boxscore Software
SOCRATES
Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
Follow CelesTrak on Twitter @TSKelso
Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 March 29 23:42:45 UTC