SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Apr 18 08:02 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Apr 18 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Apr 25 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,427 Primaries, 14,843 Secondaries (17,814 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
38084 ROBUSTA [-] 6.600 6.504E-02 0.002 0.008 14.675
33709 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 15.029 2014 Apr 24 18:39:20.254 2014 Apr 24 18:39:20.595 2014 Apr 24 18:39:20.936
10514 METEOR 2-3 [?] 4.984 5.469E-02 0.007 0.029 14.825
13575 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 5.706 2014 Apr 22 21:56:36.613 2014 Apr 22 21:56:36.951 2014 Apr 22 21:56:37.288
31698 TERRASAR-X [+] 0.144 1.989E-02 0.004 0.013 0.000
36605 TANDEM-X [+] 0.078 2014 Apr 18 00:00:00.000 2014 Apr 18 01:25:27.070 2014 Apr 21 16:09:36.513
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 5.549 4.310E-03 0.044 0.183 14.669
33772 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 5.576 2014 Apr 23 12:06:11.138 2014 Apr 23 12:06:11.478 2014 Apr 23 12:06:11.819
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 3.310 2.078E-03 0.210 0.889 14.267
06938 OPS 6630 (2) [?] 3.341 2014 Apr 19 10:03:15.824 2014 Apr 19 10:03:16.168 2014 Apr 19 10:03:16.513
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
20261 INTERCOSMOS 24 [?] 4.509 1.574E-03 0.068 0.288 14.984
38279 METEOR 2-5 DEB [-] 19.178 2014 Apr 22 07:59:58.819 2014 Apr 22 07:59:59.152 2014 Apr 22 07:59:59.485
07209 METEOR 1-16 [?] 5.915 1.548E-03 0.043 0.182 14.563
14464 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.363 2014 Apr 23 21:26:22.326 2014 Apr 23 21:26:22.669 2014 Apr 23 21:26:23.012
25758 IRS-P4 (OCEANSAT 1) [?] 1.948 1.390E-03 0.047 0.198 14.781
26234 CZ-4B DEB [-] 3.776 2014 Apr 20 03:31:51.841 2014 Apr 20 03:31:52.179 2014 Apr 20 03:31:52.517
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 1.336 1.355E-03 0.038 0.159 14.831
36528 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 0.801 2014 Apr 18 12:17:30.231 2014 Apr 18 12:17:30.568 2014 Apr 18 12:17:30.905
39436 EAGLE 2 [+] 4.727 1.248E-03 0.020 0.042 6.062
34391 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.093 2014 Apr 22 21:44:14.913 2014 Apr 22 21:44:15.737 2014 Apr 22 21:44:16.562

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2009 May 26
Current system time: 2014 April 18 10:35:29 UTC