SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Jul 28 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Jul 28 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Aug 04 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,073 Primaries, 16,623 Secondaries (22,009 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 2.294 5.239E-02 0.026 0.071 11.926
39323 PEGASUS DEB [-] 2.370 2017 Jul 29 04:10:49.380 2017 Jul 29 04:10:49.799 2017 Jul 29 04:10:50.218
42891 FLOCK 2K-13 [+] 7.453 8.099E-03 0.006 0.023 0.000
42892 FLOCK 2K-14 [+] 7.584 2017 Jul 28 00:00:00.000 2017 Aug 03 09:16:56.709 2017 Aug 04 00:00:00.000
02401 OPS 2366 (TRANSIT 14) [?] 4.260 6.328E-03 1.899 2.722 16.949
26113 IMAGE [-] 5.326 2017 Jul 30 22:14:03.507 2017 Jul 30 22:14:03.754 2017 Jul 30 22:14:04.002
05560 ASTEX 1 [?] 2.169 5.556E-03 0.041 0.071 14.483
00478 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 1.932 2017 Jul 28 20:30:30.290 2017 Jul 28 20:30:30.635 2017 Jul 28 20:30:30.981
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 2.556 4.941E-03 0.139 0.564 4.315
31297 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.760 2017 Jul 29 07:50:14.433 2017 Jul 29 07:50:15.585 2017 Jul 29 07:50:16.736
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
19531 NOAA 11 [-] 5.567 3.061E-03 0.024 0.102 2.796
41403 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 5.977 2017 Aug 01 10:08:42.417 2017 Aug 01 10:08:44.204 2017 Aug 01 10:08:45.992
17525 COSMOS 1821 [?] 7.098 1.643E-03 0.025 0.100 5.688
08301 THORAD DELTA 1 DEB [-] 7.202 2017 Aug 03 01:06:58.055 2017 Aug 03 01:06:58.934 2017 Aug 03 01:06:59.813
16408 METEOR 2-13 [?] 5.107 1.433E-03 0.048 0.179 7.145
21320 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 5.582 2017 Aug 01 00:13:58.789 2017 Aug 01 00:13:59.488 2017 Aug 01 00:14:00.188
27386 ENVISAT [-] 4.099 1.399E-03 0.119 0.399 9.674
27880 OV1-5 DEB [-] 4.561 2017 Jul 31 00:14:25.185 2017 Jul 31 00:14:25.700 2017 Jul 31 00:14:26.215
23710 RADARSAT-1 [-] 3.759 1.173E-03 0.064 0.254 5.345
23344 RESURS O1 DEB [-] 3.897 2017 Jul 30 17:26:53.773 2017 Jul 30 17:26:54.708 2017 Jul 30 17:26:55.642

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 July 28 04:41:49 UTC