SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Oct 23 16:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Oct 23 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Oct 30 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,095 Primaries, 16,673 Secondaries (22,255 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24905 IRIDIUM 46 [+] 3.416 3.923E-01 0.002 0.006 14.929
30099 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.952 2017 Oct 26 17:38:02.738 2017 Oct 26 17:38:03.073 2017 Oct 26 17:38:03.408
07291 COSMOS 651 [?] 4.789 4.357E-03 0.031 0.086 11.774
25444 SL-14 DEB [-] 4.199 2017 Oct 27 11:03:44.152 2017 Oct 27 11:03:44.577 2017 Oct 27 11:03:45.001
25343 IRIDIUM 72 [+] 2.932 3.684E-03 0.039 0.062 14.705
34139 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.597 2017 Oct 26 03:38:39.853 2017 Oct 26 03:38:40.193 2017 Oct 26 03:38:40.533
05174 COSMOS 407 [?] 6.131 3.004E-03 0.026 0.065 12.784
08344 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.164 2017 Oct 29 01:29:42.208 2017 Oct 29 01:29:42.599 2017 Oct 29 01:29:42.990
13113 METEOR 2-8 [?] 6.281 2.379E-03 0.054 0.094 14.295
29978 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.247 2017 Oct 29 04:58:34.823 2017 Oct 29 04:58:35.172 2017 Oct 29 04:58:35.522
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 6.460 1.792E-03 0.146 0.382 12.449
39676 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 6.261 2017 Oct 29 10:38:32.978 2017 Oct 29 10:38:33.378 2017 Oct 29 10:38:33.779
07094 COSMOS 628 [?] 2.589 1.643E-03 0.031 0.120 6.616
15398 COSMOS 1610 [?] 3.159 2017 Oct 25 19:01:20.171 2017 Oct 25 19:01:20.927 2017 Oct 25 19:01:21.682
25468 IRIDIUM 81 [+] 0.576 1.469E-03 0.041 0.147 8.634
42672 CZ-4C DEB [-] 0.980 2017 Oct 24 01:56:30.179 2017 Oct 24 01:56:30.758 2017 Oct 24 01:56:31.337
25758 IRS-P4 (OCEANSAT) [-] 5.323 1.200E-03 0.051 0.215 0.166
42920 FORMOSAT-5 [+] 4.639 2017 Oct 28 03:07:52.697 2017 Oct 28 03:08:22.883 2017 Oct 28 03:08:53.069
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 3.234 9.888E-04 0.217 0.464 13.700
37036 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.012 2017 Oct 26 10:04:00.839 2017 Oct 26 10:04:01.202 2017 Oct 26 10:04:01.566

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 October 24 07:21:58 UTC