SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Oct 22 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Oct 22 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Oct 29 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,503 Primaries, 15,038 Secondaries (18,328 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07274 METEOR 1-17 [?] 5.790 1.785E-02 0.013 0.053 14.770
32142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 17.691 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.233 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.572 2014 Oct 26 11:20:33.910
25860 OKEAN-O [?] 6.315 1.512E-02 0.015 0.059 13.948
34442 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.332 2014 Oct 28 02:39:31.123 2014 Oct 28 02:39:31.482 2014 Oct 28 02:39:31.840
39208 SHIYAN-7 (SY-7) [+] 0.751 7.905E-03 0.009 0.014 0.000
39357 SHIYAN-7 DEB [-] 0.956 2014 Oct 22 00:00:00.000 2014 Oct 22 15:15:43.261 2014 Oct 25 08:54:57.751
31130 CAPE1 [-] 1.626 7.867E-03 0.006 0.023 14.855
37547 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.158 2014 Oct 23 06:35:15.286 2014 Oct 23 06:35:15.622 2014 Oct 23 06:35:15.959
06256 METEOR 1-13 [?] 3.610 6.133E-03 0.022 0.092 14.852
37635 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.402 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.307 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.644 2014 Oct 24 18:28:09.980
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
04419 METEOR 1-5 [?] 4.020 4.306E-03 0.026 0.109 14.814
31945 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.423 2014 Oct 25 02:02:15.774 2014 Oct 25 02:02:16.112 2014 Oct 25 02:02:16.449
17359 COSMOS 1816 [?] 7.301 4.025E-03 0.020 0.083 14.567
23092 COSMOS 2279 [?] 7.118 2014 Oct 28 19:17:42.145 2014 Oct 28 19:17:42.489 2014 Oct 28 19:17:42.832
24966 IRIDIUM 35 [+] 4.269 3.421E-03 0.025 0.105 14.834
36273 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.129 2014 Oct 25 13:14:30.678 2014 Oct 25 13:14:31.015 2014 Oct 25 13:14:31.352
18665 COSMOS 1900 [?] 4.382 3.079E-03 0.031 0.121 13.665
27677 CZ-4B DEB [-] 5.728 2014 Oct 25 19:58:34.090 2014 Oct 25 19:58:34.456 2014 Oct 25 19:58:34.822
24946 IRIDIUM 33 [-] 5.716 2.731E-03 0.060 0.151 7.819
25777 IRIDIUM 14 [S] 5.709 2014 Oct 27 04:14:08.806 2014 Oct 27 04:14:09.445 2014 Oct 27 04:14:10.084

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 October 22 03:08:38 UTC