SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Feb 13 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Feb 13 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Feb 20 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,644 Primaries, 15,424 Secondaries (18,975 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
05721 COSMOS 469 [?] 1.844 3.824E-02 0.010 0.029 11.443
05192 COSMOS 397 DEB [-] 1.945 2016 Feb 14 09:40:23.271 2016 Feb 14 09:40:23.708 2016 Feb 14 09:40:24.145
25165 GLOBALSTAR M003 [-] 3.177 1.088E-02 0.016 0.064 5.660
21164 SL-8 DEB [-] 3.151 2016 Feb 15 01:48:17.256 2016 Feb 15 01:48:18.140 2016 Feb 15 01:48:19.023
32050 INSAT-4CR [+] 1.625 6.204E-03 0.006 0.027 0.000
39234 GSAT-7 [+] 2.234 2016 Feb 13 00:00:00.000 2016 Feb 13 15:16:59.058 2016 Feb 20 00:00:00.000
17239 COSMOS 1808 [?] 1.950 5.705E-03 0.034 0.055 14.462
21090 SL-8 R/B [-] 1.427 2016 Feb 14 03:33:52.645 2016 Feb 14 03:33:52.991 2016 Feb 14 03:33:53.336
27373 IRIDIUM 90 [S] 0.643 5.144E-03 0.026 0.066 12.805
38176 CZ-2D DEB [-] 0.852 2016 Feb 13 03:18:13.578 2016 Feb 13 03:18:13.968 2016 Feb 13 03:18:14.359
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
05721 COSMOS 469 [?] 6.832 3.167E-03 0.048 0.143 11.093
18130 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.555 2016 Feb 19 09:22:53.801 2016 Feb 19 09:22:54.252 2016 Feb 19 09:22:54.702
40069 METEOR-M 2 [+] 0.476 1.951E-03 0.011 0.046 4.474
29637 DMSP 5D-3 F17 DEB [-] 1.376 2016 Feb 13 07:11:21.020 2016 Feb 13 07:11:22.138 2016 Feb 13 07:11:23.255
11605 METEOR 2-5 [?] 2.791 1.703E-03 0.070 0.102 14.832
41139 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 2.598 2016 Feb 14 15:06:41.432 2016 Feb 14 15:06:41.769 2016 Feb 14 15:06:42.106
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 3.662 1.387E-03 0.268 1.049 5.768
16143 COSMOS 1695 [?] 3.755 2016 Feb 16 13:39:17.427 2016 Feb 16 13:39:18.274 2016 Feb 16 13:39:19.122
39208 SHIYAN-7 (SY-7) [+] 3.081 1.239E-03 0.014 0.059 0.001
39357 SHIYAN-7 DEB [-] 2.263 2016 Feb 13 00:00:00.000 2016 Feb 14 21:27:11.383 2016 Feb 20 00:00:00.000

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 February 13 04:24:26 UTC