SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Dec 04 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Dec 11 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,759 Primaries, 15,676 Secondaries (19,591 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41820 SOYUZ-MS 02 [+] 1.579 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41864 SOYUZ-MS 03 [+] 1.579 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000 2016 Dec 11 00:00:00.000
41670 PROGRESS-MS 03 [+] 1.579 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41864 SOYUZ-MS 03 [+] 1.579 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000 2016 Dec 11 00:00:00.000
25544 ISS (ZARYA) [+] -0.228 1.780E-02 0.029 0.121 0.001
41864 SOYUZ-MS 03 [+] 1.628 2016 Dec 04 00:00:00.000 2016 Dec 04 01:10:04.845 2016 Dec 11 00:00:00.000
21577 TUBSAT A [-] 1.951 1.623E-02 0.013 0.019 14.898
02802 SL-8 R/B [-] 1.832 2016 Dec 05 10:04:09.899 2016 Dec 05 10:04:10.234 2016 Dec 05 10:04:10.570
24870 IRIDIUM 17 [-] 4.179 4.427E-03 0.037 0.055 14.834
28595 METEOR 2-5 DEB [-] 7.072 2016 Dec 07 15:31:05.240 2016 Dec 07 15:31:05.577 2016 Dec 07 15:31:05.914
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
20580 HST [+] 5.483 3.286E-03 0.075 0.258 9.380
26623 DELTA 2 DEB(DPAF) [-] 6.688 2016 Dec 09 14:28:15.816 2016 Dec 09 14:28:16.349 2016 Dec 09 14:28:16.881
25344 IRIDIUM 73 [-] 0.682 1.790E-03 0.054 0.093 14.489
35773 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 0.389 2016 Dec 04 02:50:23.722 2016 Dec 04 02:50:24.067 2016 Dec 04 02:50:24.412
08473 COSMOS 785 [?] 5.586 1.736E-03 0.091 0.213 13.056
15085 COSMOS 1579 [?] 5.185 2016 Dec 08 19:21:23.723 2016 Dec 08 19:21:24.106 2016 Dec 08 19:21:24.488
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 4.947 1.512E-03 0.140 0.470 9.668
31337 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.492 2016 Dec 08 15:34:01.643 2016 Dec 08 15:34:02.158 2016 Dec 08 15:34:02.673
04331 OPS 0054 (DMSP 5A F1) [-] 3.335 1.278E-03 0.082 0.123 14.743
07209 METEOR 1-16 [?] 2.954 2016 Dec 06 12:16:29.680 2016 Dec 06 12:16:30.019 2016 Dec 06 12:16:30.358

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 December 04 12:12:42 UTC