SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Sep 19 08:02 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Sep 19 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Sep 26 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,492 Primaries, 14,980 Secondaries (18,568 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25342 IRIDIUM 70 [+] 4.441 1.891E-02 0.011 0.044 14.870
30373 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.801 2014 Sep 22 22:57:27.561 2014 Sep 22 22:57:27.898 2014 Sep 22 22:57:28.234
10967 SEASAT 1 [-] 3.737 4.659E-03 0.046 0.196 14.902
34401 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.352 2014 Sep 22 13:50:51.156 2014 Sep 22 13:50:51.491 2014 Sep 22 13:50:51.826
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 0.949 3.590E-03 0.084 0.328 13.791
38248 RISAT 1 [+] 0.133 2014 Sep 19 08:51:57.062 2014 Sep 19 08:51:57.424 2014 Sep 19 08:51:57.786
12297 COSMOS 1244 [?] 3.169 2.943E-03 0.030 0.047 2.522
00178 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 1.994 2014 Sep 21 02:41:22.689 2014 Sep 21 02:41:24.672 2014 Sep 21 02:41:26.654
21688 IRS-1B [-] 0.766 2.417E-03 0.028 0.119 14.601
37022 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 11.648 2014 Sep 19 05:58:12.648 2014 Sep 19 05:58:12.990 2014 Sep 19 05:58:13.333
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
23827 IRS-P3 [-] 3.907 1.473E-03 0.037 0.150 14.269
28593 THOR BURNER 2A DEB [-] 5.155 2014 Sep 22 08:18:29.010 2014 Sep 22 08:18:29.361 2014 Sep 22 08:18:29.711
07274 METEOR 1-17 [?] 3.995 1.464E-03 0.046 0.182 13.853
34758 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.494 2014 Sep 22 03:42:39.125 2014 Sep 22 03:42:39.486 2014 Sep 22 03:42:39.847
16735 METEOR 2-14 [?] 20.637 1.378E-03 0.046 0.194 14.744
30118 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.800 2014 Sep 23 19:16:13.536 2014 Sep 23 19:16:13.875 2014 Sep 23 19:16:14.214
38084 ROBUSTA [-] 2.685 1.355E-03 0.014 0.054 13.272
39416 APRIZESAT 7 [+] 2.990 2014 Sep 21 16:26:19.776 2014 Sep 21 16:26:20.153 2014 Sep 21 16:26:20.529
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 1.188 1.344E-03 0.038 0.159 14.704
35742 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 4.589 2014 Sep 19 15:57:22.173 2014 Sep 19 15:57:22.512 2014 Sep 19 15:57:22.852

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 September 19 09:46:06 UTC