SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Jun 24 23:35 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Jun 24 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Jul 01 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,712 Primaries, 15,517 Secondaries (19,788 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24945 IRIDIUM 32 [+] 3.491 1.417E-02 0.021 0.030 14.929
41231 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 3.051 2016 Jun 27 17:30:13.561 2016 Jun 27 17:30:13.896 2016 Jun 27 17:30:14.231
16510 COSMOS 1727 [?] 1.133 5.945E-03 0.024 0.056 13.012
10537 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.072 2016 Jun 26 00:39:18.694 2016 Jun 26 00:39:19.078 2016 Jun 26 00:39:19.462
10703 OSCAR 8 (AO-8) [-] 3.149 3.768E-03 0.009 0.013 14.804
29299 METEOR 2-17 DEB [-] 4.331 2016 Jun 28 00:54:21.338 2016 Jun 28 00:54:21.675 2016 Jun 28 00:54:22.013
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 4.699 3.475E-03 0.193 0.579 13.281
05977 DELTA 1 R/B(2) [-] 5.818 2016 Jun 28 21:48:26.672 2016 Jun 28 21:48:27.046 2016 Jun 28 21:48:27.420
18791 COSMOS 1912 [?] 4.935 1.305E-03 0.014 0.059 2.679
20235 COSMOS 2041 [?] 4.856 2016 Jun 28 19:31:46.669 2016 Jun 28 19:31:48.535 2016 Jun 28 19:31:50.402
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
17066 COSMOS 1791 [?] 4.207 1.138E-03 0.048 0.123 12.444
27003 BADR-B [-] 4.546 2016 Jun 28 10:13:14.456 2016 Jun 28 10:13:14.858 2016 Jun 28 10:13:15.260
17527 MOMO-1 (MOS-1) [-] 4.167 1.086E-03 0.060 0.166 11.981
30398 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.833 2016 Jun 28 16:58:23.430 2016 Jun 28 16:58:23.847 2016 Jun 28 16:58:24.265
23751 IRS-1C [-] 1.707 9.369E-04 0.049 0.177 8.364
31562 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.766 2016 Jun 26 04:16:24.854 2016 Jun 26 04:16:25.451 2016 Jun 26 04:16:26.049
18665 COSMOS 1900 [?] 2.323 9.107E-04 0.060 0.213 8.719
37343 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.262 2016 Jun 26 14:36:07.677 2016 Jun 26 14:36:08.250 2016 Jun 26 14:36:08.823
40057 VELOX 1 [+] -0.048 8.780E-04 0.082 0.196 13.243
25861 SL-16 R/B [-] 0.332 2016 Jun 24 19:23:45.219 2016 Jun 24 19:23:45.597 2016 Jun 24 19:23:45.974

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 June 25 03:28:12 UTC