SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Sep 30 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Sep 30 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Oct 07 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,496 Primaries, 15,038 Secondaries (19,008 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24945 IRIDIUM 32 [+] 5.843 8.544E-03 0.034 0.085 7.761
25286 IRIDIUM 63 [+] 5.813 2014 Oct 05 07:17:17.974 2014 Oct 05 07:17:18.618 2014 Oct 05 07:17:19.263
36036 SMOS [+] 3.730 5.388E-03 0.015 0.063 14.757
10521 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.240 2014 Oct 02 08:09:14.680 2014 Oct 02 08:09:15.019 2014 Oct 02 08:09:15.358
06392 METEOR 1-14 [?] 4.123 4.242E-03 0.026 0.110 14.837
31365 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.301 2014 Oct 03 07:11:23.860 2014 Oct 03 07:11:24.197 2014 Oct 03 07:11:24.534
09022 COSMOS 841 [?] 2.640 3.273E-03 0.030 0.126 14.558
24836 IRIDIUM 914 [-] 1.700 2014 Oct 01 02:42:04.570 2014 Oct 01 02:42:04.913 2014 Oct 01 02:42:05.256
39208 SHIYAN-7 (SY-7) [+] 5.943 2.275E-03 0.012 0.037 0.000
39357 SHIYAN-7 DEB [-] 5.807 2014 Sep 30 00:00:00.000 2014 Oct 06 00:23:13.936 2014 Oct 07 00:00:00.000
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25418 ORBCOMM FM15 [+] 5.545 2.014E-03 0.023 0.067 9.774
39656 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 7.049 2014 Oct 05 00:30:26.560 2014 Oct 05 00:30:27.072 2014 Oct 05 00:30:27.583
05731 METEOR 1-10 [?] 6.137 1.968E-03 0.038 0.162 14.748
35097 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.592 2014 Oct 05 03:52:55.078 2014 Oct 05 03:52:55.417 2014 Oct 05 03:52:55.756
24950 IRIDIUM 31 [+] 2.975 1.818E-03 0.035 0.142 14.292
35459 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 8.718 2014 Oct 02 05:08:40.744 2014 Oct 02 05:08:41.094 2014 Oct 02 05:08:41.443
05683 COSMOS 465 [?] 5.187 1.689E-03 0.033 0.131 13.779
12298 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.270 2014 Oct 04 00:04:55.374 2014 Oct 04 00:04:55.737 2014 Oct 04 00:04:56.100
24969 IRIDIUM 34 [+] 1.452 1.682E-03 0.038 0.140 12.606
22495 SL-16 DEB [-] 1.763 2014 Sep 30 19:42:53.308 2014 Sep 30 19:42:53.704 2014 Sep 30 19:42:54.101

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 September 30 13:49:08 UTC