SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Sep 02 08:02 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Sep 02 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Sep 09 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,488 Primaries, 14,961 Secondaries (18,964 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
40124 FLOCK 1B-26 [+] 0.171 9.412E-03 0.005 0.021 0.003
40132 FLOCK 1B-2 [+] -0.019 2014 Sep 02 03:48:02.002 2014 Sep 02 04:09:22.728 2014 Sep 02 04:27:52.580
39208 SHIYAN-7 (SY-7) [+] 3.787 8.742E-03 0.006 0.019 0.000
39357 SHIYAN-7 DEB [-] 9.990 2014 Sep 02 00:00:00.000 2014 Sep 05 23:32:02.243 2014 Sep 09 00:00:00.000
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 7.588 4.555E-03 0.155 0.550 12.810
38067 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.874 2014 Sep 08 07:38:03.580 2014 Sep 08 07:38:03.968 2014 Sep 08 07:38:04.356
24794 IRIDIUM 6 [+] 6.926 3.036E-03 0.028 0.104 12.763
31717 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.587 2014 Sep 08 09:54:38.111 2014 Sep 08 09:54:38.503 2014 Sep 08 09:54:38.895
25634 ARGOS [?] 4.931 2.590E-03 0.044 0.187 14.887
07715 SL-3 R/B [-] 3.991 2014 Sep 05 17:58:44.728 2014 Sep 05 17:58:45.064 2014 Sep 05 17:58:45.399
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
10141 COSMOS 928 [?] 4.061 2.463E-03 0.020 0.084 14.561
27534 NADEZHDA 7 [-] 4.163 2014 Sep 05 17:57:54.228 2014 Sep 05 17:57:54.571 2014 Sep 05 17:57:54.914
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 1.574 2.118E-03 0.108 0.434 13.980
37831 NOAA 12 DEB [-] 3.253 2014 Sep 03 07:51:56.329 2014 Sep 03 07:51:56.685 2014 Sep 03 07:51:57.042
21574 ERS-1 [-] 1.649 1.277E-03 0.069 0.258 12.984
21532 SCOUT G-1 DEB [-] 3.382 2014 Sep 03 10:56:00.807 2014 Sep 03 10:56:01.192 2014 Sep 03 10:56:01.576
17527 MOMO-1 (MOS-1) [-] 4.365 1.048E-03 0.050 0.209 14.660
35241 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.215 2014 Sep 06 11:07:42.943 2014 Sep 06 11:07:43.284 2014 Sep 06 11:07:43.625
00226 TIROS 4 [-] 2.066 1.040E-03 0.062 0.130 5.691
25273 IRIDIUM 57 [+] 1.529 2014 Sep 02 22:56:57.779 2014 Sep 02 22:56:58.658 2014 Sep 02 22:56:59.536

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 September 02 16:36:54 UTC