SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Dec 20 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Dec 20 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Dec 27 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,518 Primaries, 15,040 Secondaries (18,238 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24950 IRIDIUM 31 [+] 5.183 1.800E-02 0.011 0.045 14.491
38518 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 28.882 2014 Dec 24 13:30:09.239 2014 Dec 24 13:30:09.584 2014 Dec 24 13:30:09.929
24841 IRIDIUM 16 [-] 5.036 1.067E-02 0.024 0.070 9.658
10962 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.046 2014 Dec 24 13:59:28.907 2014 Dec 24 13:59:29.425 2014 Dec 24 13:59:29.943
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 4.177 3.192E-03 0.031 0.122 13.597
22609 SL-16 DEB [-] 4.996 2014 Dec 22 17:49:43.494 2014 Dec 22 17:49:43.861 2014 Dec 22 17:49:44.229
05174 COSMOS 407 [?] 6.428 2.183E-03 0.046 0.190 14.521
23710 RADARSAT-1 [-] 6.379 2014 Dec 25 06:23:22.672 2014 Dec 25 06:23:23.016 2014 Dec 25 06:23:23.360
09486 COSMOS 860 [?] 2.234 1.747E-03 0.058 0.213 12.299
23604 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.206 2014 Dec 20 17:15:11.456 2014 Dec 20 17:15:11.862 2014 Dec 20 17:15:12.268
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
00503 RELAY 1 (A-15) [?] 9.908 1.651E-03 0.010 0.037 13.013
05552 COSMOS 449 [?] 8.939 2014 Dec 26 05:06:56.757 2014 Dec 26 05:06:57.141 2014 Dec 26 05:06:57.526
14973 COSMOS 1553 [?] 8.287 1.588E-03 0.034 0.144 14.587
21938 SL-8 R/B [-] 8.372 2014 Dec 26 19:26:38.340 2014 Dec 26 19:26:38.683 2014 Dec 26 19:26:39.025
24870 IRIDIUM 17 [-] 1.030 1.413E-03 0.063 0.101 2.878
39792 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 2.093 2014 Dec 20 14:28:02.476 2014 Dec 20 14:28:04.213 2014 Dec 20 14:28:05.950
07213 MIRANDA (X-4) [?] 5.448 1.194E-03 0.014 0.060 14.904
35077 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 8.734 2014 Dec 23 19:17:15.316 2014 Dec 23 19:17:15.652 2014 Dec 23 19:17:15.987
24968 IRIDIUM 37 [+] 6.400 1.183E-03 0.047 0.162 11.855
30647 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.423 2014 Dec 25 21:22:40.059 2014 Dec 25 21:22:40.481 2014 Dec 25 21:22:40.903

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 December 20 05:05:33 UTC