SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Nov 28 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Nov 28 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Dec 05 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,506 Primaries, 15,012 Secondaries (18,419 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
00731 GREB [?] 6.010 1.057E-02 0.005 0.020 13.844
22601 SL-16 DEB [-] 7.341 2014 Dec 03 04:54:11.212 2014 Dec 03 04:54:11.573 2014 Dec 03 04:54:11.934
40039 PERSEUS-M1 [+] 0.725 7.627E-03 0.006 0.024 15.347
24340 PEGASUS DEB [-] 1.285 2014 Nov 28 11:15:20.173 2014 Nov 28 11:15:20.498 2014 Nov 28 11:15:20.824
09661 METEOR 2-2 [?] 7.054 5.041E-03 0.025 0.096 13.233
37007 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.782 2014 Dec 04 05:02:54.963 2014 Dec 04 05:02:55.340 2014 Dec 04 05:02:55.718
24795 IRIDIUM 5 [+] 7.000 3.457E-03 0.032 0.081 8.073
18648 COSMOS 252 DEB [-] 7.359 2014 Dec 04 11:34:21.648 2014 Dec 04 11:34:22.268 2014 Dec 04 11:34:22.887
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 5.515 2.333E-03 0.104 0.410 13.726
33758 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.799 2014 Dec 02 16:07:27.181 2014 Dec 02 16:07:27.545 2014 Dec 02 16:07:27.908
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 2.518 2.215E-03 0.104 0.432 14.575
28318 DMSP 5D-2 F11 DEB [-] 2.161 2014 Nov 29 17:02:59.788 2014 Nov 29 17:03:00.129 2014 Nov 29 17:03:00.471
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 8.024 1.826E-03 0.085 0.344 14.135
34637 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.602 2014 Dec 04 21:38:18.943 2014 Dec 04 21:38:19.296 2014 Dec 04 21:38:19.649
04564 COSMOS 367 [?] 6.613 1.418E-03 0.045 0.181 13.753
35835 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 9.914 2014 Dec 04 01:32:25.633 2014 Dec 04 01:32:25.996 2014 Dec 04 01:32:26.359
08799 METEOR 1-24 [?] 1.823 1.369E-03 0.046 0.195 14.874
35170 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.175 2014 Nov 28 14:23:41.126 2014 Nov 28 14:23:41.462 2014 Nov 28 14:23:41.798
21574 ERS-1 [-] 6.724 1.112E-03 0.085 0.239 9.080
20878 CZ-4 DEB [-] 6.050 2014 Dec 03 14:27:23.837 2014 Dec 03 14:27:24.387 2014 Dec 03 14:27:24.937

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 November 28 06:41:49 UTC