SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 May 31 07:36 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 May 31 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Jun 07 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,681 Primaries, 15,464 Secondaries (19,150 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
39208 SHIYAN-7 (SY-7) [+] 1.368 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
39357 SHIYAN-7 DEB [-] 1.368 2016 May 31 00:00:00.000 2016 May 31 00:00:00.000 2016 Jun 07 00:00:00.000
12091 COSMOS 1226 [?] 4.884 1.844E-02 0.010 0.040 6.528
08646 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.665 2016 Jun 04 02:15:55.719 2016 Jun 04 02:15:56.485 2016 Jun 04 02:15:57.251
08519 METEOR 1-23 [?] 5.019 1.163E-02 0.023 0.046 13.933
36700 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.177 2016 Jun 04 20:29:25.764 2016 Jun 04 20:29:26.122 2016 Jun 04 20:29:26.481
25276 IRIDIUM 60 [+] 6.995 2.942E-03 0.027 0.110 5.066
34082 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 7.308 2016 Jun 06 10:14:43.704 2016 Jun 06 10:14:44.690 2016 Jun 06 10:14:45.677
41474 MINXSS [+] 4.779 2.196E-03 0.011 0.044 0.001
41476 STMSAT-1 [+] 4.779 2016 Jun 04 20:09:57.253 2016 Jun 04 22:54:51.137 2016 Jun 05 00:57:01.106
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 4.594 1.015E-03 0.143 0.240 14.555
36423 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 21.649 2016 Jun 03 21:26:25.104 2016 Jun 03 21:26:25.447 2016 Jun 03 21:26:25.790
40959 LINGQIAO VIDEO A [+] 3.750 6.676E-04 0.022 0.069 10.922
15614 ATLAS 41E DEB [-] 4.993 2016 Jun 03 21:59:43.552 2016 Jun 03 21:59:44.010 2016 Jun 03 21:59:44.468
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 5.528 5.641E-04 0.417 1.655 5.361
22648 COSMOS 2247 [?] 6.748 2016 Jun 05 16:46:13.897 2016 Jun 05 16:46:14.777 2016 Jun 05 16:46:15.657
13718 METEOR 2-9 [?] 6.271 5.605E-04 0.076 0.289 6.808
36644 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.856 2016 Jun 06 07:25:18.572 2016 Jun 06 07:25:19.305 2016 Jun 06 07:25:20.038
21729 COSMOS 2158 [?] 2.399 5.381E-04 0.037 0.053 14.233
07184 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 2.284 2016 Jun 01 07:28:04.045 2016 Jun 01 07:28:04.396 2016 Jun 01 07:28:04.748

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 May 31 09:55:56 UTC