SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Nov 24 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Nov 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Dec 01 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,506 Primaries, 15,035 Secondaries (18,570 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25469 IRIDIUM 80 [+] 1.861 2.019E-02 0.013 0.034 8.209
35900 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.087 2014 Nov 25 05:39:34.832 2014 Nov 25 05:39:35.441 2014 Nov 25 05:39:36.050
28057 CBERS 2 (ZY 1B) [-] 3.995 3.772E-03 0.022 0.091 14.434
36053 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.936 2014 Nov 27 18:27:35.464 2014 Nov 27 18:27:35.810 2014 Nov 27 18:27:36.156
23751 IRS-1C [-] 6.701 2.094E-03 0.031 0.127 14.514
31071 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.426 2014 Nov 29 15:08:36.409 2014 Nov 29 15:08:36.753 2014 Nov 29 15:08:37.098
25286 IRIDIUM 63 [+] 1.148 1.970E-03 0.055 0.228 14.583
25471 IRIDIUM 77 [+] 1.223 2014 Nov 24 12:54:41.183 2014 Nov 24 12:54:41.526 2014 Nov 24 12:54:41.868
11735 COSMOS 1168 [?] 5.280 1.668E-03 0.031 0.129 14.509
18709 COSMOS 1904 [?] 4.386 2014 Nov 28 00:45:52.724 2014 Nov 28 00:45:53.069 2014 Nov 28 00:45:53.413
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27464 COSMOS 2390 [+] 5.104 1.421E-03 0.013 0.057 14.253
08396 THORAD DELTA 1 DEB [-] 5.530 2014 Nov 28 23:28:06.008 2014 Nov 28 23:28:06.358 2014 Nov 28 23:28:06.709
17066 COSMOS 1791 [?] 6.479 1.316E-03 0.021 0.088 14.655
37921 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.974 2014 Nov 30 04:15:21.760 2014 Nov 30 04:15:22.101 2014 Nov 30 04:15:22.442
18957 COSMOS 1932 [?] 4.792 1.194E-03 0.055 0.178 10.768
26550 DNEPR 1 R/B [-] 4.489 2014 Nov 27 15:37:34.025 2014 Nov 27 15:37:34.489 2014 Nov 27 15:37:34.953
25286 IRIDIUM 63 [+] 1.079 1.111E-03 0.073 0.303 14.583
25471 IRIDIUM 77 [+] 1.153 2014 Nov 24 11:14:13.398 2014 Nov 24 11:14:13.741 2014 Nov 24 11:14:14.083
22161 FREJA [?] 5.017 1.002E-03 0.037 0.138 12.240
01575 SL-8 R/B [-] 5.259 2014 Nov 28 05:01:35.239 2014 Nov 28 05:01:35.648 2014 Nov 28 05:01:36.056

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 November 24 03:27:45 UTC