SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 May 22 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 May 22 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 May 29 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,540 Primaries, 15,078 Secondaries (18,564 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
15378 COSMOS 1607 [?] -0.056 3.064E-02 0.017 0.066 14.181
16735 METEOR 2-14 [?] 1.129 2015 May 22 02:52:34.943 2015 May 22 02:52:35.295 2015 May 22 02:52:35.648
20261 INTERCOSMOS 24 [?] 4.311 2.917E-03 0.071 0.150 7.713
32030 BREEZE-M DEB [-] 4.353 2015 May 25 20:43:35.519 2015 May 25 20:43:36.167 2015 May 25 20:43:36.815
11962 METEOR 2-6 [?] -0.131 1.601E-03 0.042 0.180 14.873
31754 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.478 2015 May 22 00:25:23.586 2015 May 22 00:25:23.922 2015 May 22 00:25:24.258
08860 P 76-5 [?] 2.449 1.565E-03 0.117 0.496 14.716
16511 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.368 2015 May 23 16:11:53.384 2015 May 23 16:11:53.722 2015 May 23 16:11:54.060
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] -0.103 1.305E-03 0.158 0.558 12.103
25416 ORBCOMM FM20 [+] 0.580 2015 May 22 02:19:01.102 2015 May 22 02:19:01.513 2015 May 22 02:19:01.923
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
13718 METEOR 2-9 [?] 2.244 1.164E-03 0.051 0.205 13.982
36142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.790 2015 May 23 23:33:59.530 2015 May 23 23:33:59.887 2015 May 23 23:34:00.245
20670 METEOR 2-19 [?] 1.658 1.127E-03 0.065 0.166 7.740
12751 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 0.946 2015 May 22 12:46:36.283 2015 May 22 12:46:36.928 2015 May 22 12:46:37.574
25290 IRIDIUM 67 [+] 2.128 8.620E-04 0.049 0.210 14.910
30374 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.012 2015 May 23 14:49:37.072 2015 May 23 14:49:37.407 2015 May 23 14:49:37.742
09903 METEOR 1-27 [?] 7.511 8.552E-04 0.076 0.188 7.500
40449 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 7.077 2015 May 28 12:49:11.647 2015 May 28 12:49:12.313 2015 May 28 12:49:12.979
09481 METEOR 1-26 [?] 5.199 8.179E-04 0.089 0.377 14.822
26536 NOAA 16 [-] 5.965 2015 May 27 08:47:26.052 2015 May 27 08:47:26.389 2015 May 27 08:47:26.725

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 May 22 20:35:34 UTC