SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Sep 21 00:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Sep 28 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,079 Primaries, 16,696 Secondaries (23,051 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25544 ISS (ZARYA) [+] 0.459 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 0.459 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 28 00:00:00.000
42898 SOYUZ-MS 05 [+] 0.459 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 0.459 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 28 00:00:00.000
42756 PROGRESS-MS 06 [+] 0.459 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 0.459 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 21 00:00:00.000 2017 Sep 28 00:00:00.000
16735 METEOR 2-14 [?] 6.854 4.461E-02 0.013 0.020 14.706
04868 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 6.907 2017 Sep 27 10:47:53.807 2017 Sep 27 10:47:54.147 2017 Sep 27 10:47:54.487
05903 OPS 5058 (DMSP 5B F2) [-] 5.879 1.923E-02 0.008 0.032 6.089
14760 SL-8 R/B [-] 5.600 2017 Sep 26 03:48:16.450 2017 Sep 26 03:48:17.272 2017 Sep 26 03:48:18.093
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
37838 MEGHA-TROPIQUES [+] 7.459 5.692E-03 0.007 0.024 9.915
26241 CZ-4B DEB [-] 7.619 2017 Sep 27 22:09:47.896 2017 Sep 27 22:09:48.401 2017 Sep 27 22:09:48.905
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 0.871 3.994E-03 0.152 0.637 2.250
26002 SL-14 DEB [-] 0.938 2017 Sep 21 11:48:01.988 2017 Sep 21 11:48:04.192 2017 Sep 21 11:48:06.396
05721 COSMOS 469 [?] 3.538 3.338E-03 0.044 0.080 14.215
30736 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.793 2017 Sep 24 03:27:37.272 2017 Sep 24 03:27:37.624 2017 Sep 24 03:27:37.975
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 6.460 1.881E-03 0.162 0.414 12.615
18096 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.746 2017 Sep 27 08:38:21.498 2017 Sep 27 08:38:21.893 2017 Sep 27 08:38:22.288
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 7.410 1.587E-03 0.309 0.793 12.841
39014 CZ-4C R/B [-] 6.846 2017 Sep 27 15:13:32.793 2017 Sep 27 15:13:33.178 2017 Sep 27 15:13:33.562

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 September 21 03:10:11 UTC