SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Feb 17 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Feb 24 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,227 Primaries, 16,783 Secondaries (24,187 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 1.045 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.045 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 12:00:00.000
43063 SOYUZ-MS 07 [+] 1.045 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.045 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 12:00:00.000
42971 PROGRESS-MS 07 [+] 1.045 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.045 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 12:00:00.000
14624 COSMOS 1531 [?] 1.055 1.979E-01 0.003 0.006 13.370
35208 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.629 2018 Feb 17 23:05:06.869 2018 Feb 17 23:05:07.243 2018 Feb 17 23:05:07.617
25285 IRIDIUM 62 [+] 1.793 4.695E-02 0.007 0.027 4.748
38134 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.888 2018 Feb 19 09:10:24.645 2018 Feb 19 09:10:25.698 2018 Feb 19 09:10:26.751
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
21576 ORBCOMM-X [-] 2.578 1.261E-02 0.012 0.020 14.532
31445 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.902 2018 Feb 19 16:06:25.316 2018 Feb 19 16:06:25.661 2018 Feb 19 16:06:26.005
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 5.627 7.414E-03 0.146 0.356 12.406
38043 GLOBALSTAR M092 [+] 5.019 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.038 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.440 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.842
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 0.813 5.997E-03 0.084 0.198 13.117
36630 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.147 2018 Feb 17 16:48:46.711 2018 Feb 17 16:48:47.092 2018 Feb 17 16:48:47.473
13301 COSMOS 1383 [-] 6.620 4.450E-03 0.018 0.030 14.260
31904 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.554 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.078 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.429 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.780
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 7.599 3.874E-03 0.091 0.282 10.798
38028 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 7.424 2018 Feb 24 11:40:05.550 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.013 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.475

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 February 17 21:45:00 UTC