SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Aug 16 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Aug 16 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Aug 23 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,069 Primaries, 16,641 Secondaries (22,462 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 7.452 4.148E-03 0.076 0.195 12.633
24905 IRIDIUM 46 [+] 6.888 2017 Aug 23 07:43:13.904 2017 Aug 23 07:43:14.300 2017 Aug 23 07:43:14.695
25275 IRIDIUM 59 [+] 0.954 1.558E-03 0.037 0.154 3.783
31333 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.022 2017 Aug 17 09:51:06.111 2017 Aug 17 09:51:07.432 2017 Aug 17 09:51:08.753
25756 KITSAT 3 [-] 3.356 1.537E-03 0.010 0.032 10.575
33965 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 2.676 2017 Aug 19 04:09:04.674 2017 Aug 19 04:09:05.147 2017 Aug 19 04:09:05.620
23827 IRS-P3 [-] 5.358 1.235E-03 0.059 0.112 14.126
42414 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 6.144 2017 Aug 21 05:33:39.235 2017 Aug 21 05:33:39.589 2017 Aug 21 05:33:39.943
21263 NOAA 12 [-] 5.875 1.155E-03 0.049 0.135 11.888
35146 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.800 2017 Aug 22 09:09:22.950 2017 Aug 22 09:09:23.370 2017 Aug 22 09:09:23.791
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
13991 COSMOS 1452 [?] 4.031 9.402E-04 0.048 0.100 13.763
14240 COSMOS 1486 [?] 3.704 2017 Aug 19 21:43:33.095 2017 Aug 19 21:43:33.458 2017 Aug 19 21:43:33.822
18160 COSMOS 1864 [?] 4.106 8.836E-04 0.055 0.224 3.778
10537 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.260 2017 Aug 19 23:22:05.888 2017 Aug 19 23:22:07.210 2017 Aug 19 23:22:08.532
40136 LING QIAO [+] 1.093 8.466E-04 0.017 0.072 2.247
40254 IRIDIUM 47 DEB [-] 4.272 2017 Aug 17 11:59:14.967 2017 Aug 17 11:59:17.191 2017 Aug 17 11:59:19.416
25469 IRIDIUM 80 [+] 1.255 8.205E-04 0.067 0.164 12.898
22296 SL-16 DEB [-] 2.295 2017 Aug 17 17:11:05.604 2017 Aug 17 17:11:05.991 2017 Aug 17 17:11:06.379
12553 NOAA 7 [-] 3.288 7.657E-04 0.050 0.199 5.129
22341 SL-16 DEB [-] 3.570 2017 Aug 19 18:11:40.829 2017 Aug 19 18:11:41.803 2017 Aug 19 18:11:42.777

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 August 16 19:30:51 UTC