SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 Jul 26 07:36 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,726 Primaries, 15,598 Secondaries (19,603 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41670 PROGRESS-MS 03 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41639 SOYUZ-MS 01 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41672 DRAGON CRS-9 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41672 DRAGON CRS-9 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41670 PROGRESS-MS 03 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41672 DRAGON CRS-9 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41670 PROGRESS-MS 03 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41639 SOYUZ-MS 01 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41672 DRAGON CRS-9 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41639 SOYUZ-MS 01 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41670 PROGRESS-MS 03 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 1.431 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41639 SOYUZ-MS 01 [+] 1.431 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Jul 26 00:00:00.000 2016 Aug 02 00:00:00.000
24795 IRIDIUM 5 [+] 6.741 4.999E-02 0.010 0.018 14.371
22480 SL-16 DEB [-] 6.508 2016 Aug 01 00:33:09.757 2016 Aug 01 00:33:10.105 2016 Aug 01 00:33:10.453

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 July 26 14:06:31 UTC