SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Jun 30 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Jun 30 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Jul 07 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,543 Primaries, 15,051 Secondaries (17,933 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
40392 PROGRESS-M 26M [+] 12.769 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
40542 SOYUZ-TMA 16M [+] 12.769 2015 Jun 30 00:00:00.000 2015 Jun 30 00:00:00.000 2015 Jul 07 00:00:00.000
27445 GALAXY 3C (G-3C) [+] 1.745 5.057E-02 0.028 0.115 0.001
40271 INTELSAT 30 (IS-30) [+] 1.648 2015 Jun 30 02:18:48.821 2015 Jun 30 03:27:38.504 2015 Jun 30 04:36:30.897
27431 FENGYUN 1D [-] 5.034 1.342E-02 0.019 0.029 14.734
31319 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.228 2015 Jul 04 21:12:03.524 2015 Jul 04 21:12:03.863 2015 Jul 04 21:12:04.203
25272 IRIDIUM 55 [+] 7.296 3.816E-03 0.036 0.065 14.335
39663 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 8.379 2015 Jul 06 17:30:27.095 2015 Jul 06 17:30:27.443 2015 Jul 06 17:30:27.792
13127 COSMOS 1349 [?] 4.460 2.990E-03 0.031 0.045 14.630
35171 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.024 2015 Jul 03 15:52:21.920 2015 Jul 03 15:52:22.262 2015 Jul 03 15:52:22.604
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
11510 COSMOS 1125 [?] 4.975 2.166E-03 0.040 0.146 7.859
27372 IRIDIUM 91 [+] 4.250 2015 Jul 03 17:57:06.531 2015 Jul 03 17:57:07.167 2015 Jul 03 17:57:07.803
20577 COSMOS 2074 [?] 3.079 1.323E-03 0.040 0.079 13.782
26828 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.233 2015 Jul 02 14:19:25.786 2015 Jul 02 14:19:26.149 2015 Jul 02 14:19:26.512
27386 ENVISAT [-] 1.067 1.281E-03 0.177 0.293 14.601
22289 SL-16 DEB [-] 2.636 2015 Jun 30 17:58:46.643 2015 Jun 30 17:58:46.985 2015 Jun 30 17:58:47.327
25730 FENGYUN 1C [-] 6.625 1.087E-03 0.041 0.168 3.421
35090 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.827 2015 Jul 05 11:34:26.884 2015 Jul 05 11:34:28.345 2015 Jul 05 11:34:29.806
10137 COSMOS 926 [?] 1.928 1.081E-03 0.041 0.150 8.052
13110 COSMOS 1344 [?] 1.360 2015 Jul 01 04:53:27.536 2015 Jul 01 04:53:28.157 2015 Jul 01 04:53:28.777

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 June 30 03:27:37 UTC