SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Feb 25 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Feb 25 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Mar 04 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,871 Primaries, 15,863 Secondaries (20,629 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
39208 SHIYAN 7 (SY-7) [+] 4.917 1.010E-02 0.005 0.021 0.000
39357 SHIYAN 7 DEB [-] 3.963 2017 Feb 25 00:00:00.000 2017 Feb 28 19:52:32.927 2017 Mar 04 00:00:00.000
24837 IRIDIUM 12 [+] 3.191 5.695E-03 0.019 0.081 1.819
30107 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.332 2017 Feb 27 16:50:44.472 2017 Feb 27 16:50:47.221 2017 Feb 27 16:50:49.970
00107 EXPLORER 11 [?] 3.998 5.454E-03 0.007 0.027 7.292
17755 SL-3 DEB [-] 2.979 2017 Feb 27 12:57:41.044 2017 Feb 27 12:57:41.729 2017 Feb 27 12:57:42.415
24304 COSMOS 2334 [?] 7.316 3.001E-03 0.035 0.104 11.050
11804 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.386 2017 Mar 03 21:32:44.147 2017 Mar 03 21:32:44.599 2017 Mar 03 21:32:45.051
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 4.796 2.190E-03 0.063 0.089 14.825
30746 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.768 2017 Feb 28 16:22:42.525 2017 Feb 28 16:22:42.862 2017 Feb 28 16:22:43.199
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25078 IRIDIUM 44 [-] 4.581 1.889E-03 0.057 0.083 14.919
31552 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.138 2017 Mar 01 01:51:24.118 2017 Mar 01 01:51:24.453 2017 Mar 01 01:51:24.788
25344 IRIDIUM 73 [-] 4.576 1.600E-03 0.041 0.138 9.550
33862 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 4.968 2017 Mar 01 03:46:18.799 2017 Mar 01 03:46:19.322 2017 Mar 01 03:46:19.846
22823 SPOT 3 [-] 4.499 1.355E-03 0.085 0.170 13.881
04513 THOR BURNER 2 R/B [-] 4.376 2017 Mar 01 00:38:41.498 2017 Mar 01 00:38:41.858 2017 Mar 01 00:38:42.218
08799 METEOR 1-24 [?] 4.052 1.077E-03 0.090 0.127 14.867
30540 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.764 2017 Feb 28 20:28:46.141 2017 Feb 28 20:28:46.477 2017 Feb 28 20:28:46.814
07574 METEOR 1-20 [?] 3.877 1.013E-03 0.064 0.189 11.268
19649 COSMOS 1980 [?] 3.167 2017 Feb 28 00:11:02.883 2017 Feb 28 00:11:03.327 2017 Feb 28 00:11:03.770

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 February 25 04:39:10 UTC