SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Jun 21 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Jun 21 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Jun 28 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,241 Primaries, 17,004 Secondaries (24,239 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24944 IRIDIUM 29 [-] 0.963 9.180E-02 0.008 0.022 12.504
11870 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.677 2018 Jun 21 21:41:35.933 2018 Jun 21 21:41:36.333 2018 Jun 21 21:41:36.733
21574 ERS-1 [-] 5.449 4.709E-03 0.042 0.114 12.174
33761 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.022 2018 Jun 26 05:49:46.991 2018 Jun 26 05:49:47.402 2018 Jun 26 05:49:47.812
23940 TOMS EP [?] 3.360 4.007E-03 0.032 0.054 14.593
26227 CZ-4B DEB [-] 3.428 2018 Jun 24 06:59:32.456 2018 Jun 24 06:59:32.798 2018 Jun 24 06:59:33.141
43042 AEROCUBE 7B [+] 0.925 2.581E-03 0.010 0.041 0.000
43043 AEROCUBE 7C [+] 1.054 2018 Jun 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Jun 22 00:08:43.516 2018 Jun 26 18:41:04.559
13243 COSMOS 1372 [?] 4.995 2.397E-03 0.061 0.236 6.524
19851 METEOR 2-18 [?] 4.820 2018 Jun 25 18:32:48.341 2018 Jun 25 18:32:49.107 2018 Jun 25 18:32:49.873
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
05174 COSMOS 407 [?] 2.426 2.022E-03 0.012 0.042 9.567
35299 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 3.035 2018 Jun 23 09:05:53.509 2018 Jun 23 09:05:54.032 2018 Jun 23 09:05:54.555
13367 LANDSAT 4 [-] 2.510 1.910E-03 0.046 0.072 14.997
40900 NUDT-PHONESAT [+] 2.196 2018 Jun 23 01:16:58.327 2018 Jun 23 01:16:58.660 2018 Jun 23 01:16:58.994
24905 IRIDIUM 46 [P] 4.306 1.818E-03 0.058 0.084 14.935
26146 DMSP 5D-3 F15 DEB [-] 4.302 2018 Jun 25 05:00:27.340 2018 Jun 25 05:00:27.674 2018 Jun 25 05:00:28.009
07490 METEOR 1-19 [?] 2.545 1.679E-03 0.042 0.175 1.967
22607 SL-16 DEB [-] 2.524 2018 Jun 23 11:44:04.573 2018 Jun 23 11:44:07.113 2018 Jun 23 11:44:09.654
27386 ENVISAT [-] 5.572 1.129E-03 0.120 0.488 4.539
30190 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.750 2018 Jun 26 16:57:06.809 2018 Jun 26 16:57:07.905 2018 Jun 26 16:57:09.001

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 June 21 16:22:39 UTC