SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Apr 19 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Apr 19 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Apr 26 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,541 Primaries, 15,078 Secondaries (19,018 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24949 IRIDIUM 30 [+] 3.955 1.047E-02 0.021 0.081 13.448
14760 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.225 2015 Apr 23 09:20:32.145 2015 Apr 23 09:20:32.517 2015 Apr 23 09:20:32.889
03890 NIMBUS 3 [-] 2.972 4.390E-03 0.014 0.059 14.320
28609 NIMBUS 2 DEB [-] 14.694 2015 Apr 21 18:06:20.907 2015 Apr 21 18:06:21.256 2015 Apr 21 18:06:21.605
16647 COSMOS 1736 [?] 5.169 3.622E-03 0.040 0.135 11.299
22888 COSMOS 2266 [?] 5.412 2015 Apr 24 05:34:16.739 2015 Apr 24 05:34:17.182 2015 Apr 24 05:34:17.624
29092 RSS-1 (YAOGAN 1) [?] 3.113 3.247E-03 0.010 0.031 10.058
39151 NEE-01 PEGASUS [P] 2.793 2015 Apr 22 05:20:28.459 2015 Apr 22 05:20:28.956 2015 Apr 22 05:20:29.453
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 2.398 2.485E-03 0.034 0.144 14.823
37921 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.324 2015 Apr 21 02:13:02.589 2015 Apr 21 02:13:02.926 2015 Apr 21 02:13:03.263
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
16011 COSMOS 1680 [?] 0.919 2.347E-03 0.016 0.067 14.848
31494 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.337 2015 Apr 20 08:40:13.682 2015 Apr 20 08:40:14.019 2015 Apr 20 08:40:14.356
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 0.747 1.866E-03 0.114 0.467 14.336
29760 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.094 2015 Apr 19 14:33:12.360 2015 Apr 19 14:33:12.707 2015 Apr 19 14:33:13.054
04070 COSMOS 292 [?] 0.535 1.778E-03 0.019 0.064 11.600
17429 ARIANE 1 DEB [-] 1.139 2015 Apr 19 15:30:13.931 2015 Apr 19 15:30:14.362 2015 Apr 19 15:30:14.793
25286 IRIDIUM 63 [+] 5.725 1.544E-03 0.039 0.147 12.847
35219 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.244 2015 Apr 25 00:27:22.457 2015 Apr 25 00:27:22.846 2015 Apr 25 00:27:23.235
25159 ORBCOMM FM04 [+] 2.267 1.525E-03 0.025 0.082 11.240
33782 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.025 2015 Apr 20 19:22:47.406 2015 Apr 20 19:22:47.850 2015 Apr 20 19:22:48.295

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 April 19 17:33:01 UTC