SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2014 Aug 27 00:02 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2014 Aug 27 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2014 Sep 03 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,488 Primaries, 14,961 Secondaries (18,651 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27386 ENVISAT [-] 7.797 2.250E-02 0.034 0.086 7.940
35901 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.576 2014 Sep 02 23:06:28.158 2014 Sep 02 23:06:28.787 2014 Sep 02 23:06:29.417
25399 SAFIR 2 [-] 2.260 8.893E-03 0.004 0.014 11.140
34009 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.560 2014 Aug 28 05:44:05.078 2014 Aug 28 05:44:05.527 2014 Aug 28 05:44:05.976
11080 NIMBUS 7 [-] 6.983 4.959E-03 0.030 0.128 14.657
15516 METEOR 2-12 [?] 6.617 2014 Sep 01 10:13:10.184 2014 Sep 01 10:13:10.525 2014 Sep 01 10:13:10.866
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 5.602 3.811E-03 0.059 0.237 14.137
00123 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 6.005 2014 Aug 31 02:11:14.824 2014 Aug 31 02:11:15.178 2014 Aug 31 02:11:15.531
40127 FLOCK 1B-16 [+] 3.523 2.984E-03 0.009 0.038 0.001
40132 FLOCK 1B-2 [+] 3.510 2014 Aug 29 12:20:49.052 2014 Aug 29 16:31:26.706 2014 Aug 29 18:34:23.160
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
08072 COSMOS 755 [?] 4.076 2.854E-03 0.019 0.075 13.258
12670 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 5.648 2014 Aug 30 01:28:06.072 2014 Aug 30 01:28:06.449 2014 Aug 30 01:28:06.826
03229 COSMOS 220 [?] 2.252 2.276E-03 0.015 0.062 14.786
38265 YAOGAN 7 DEB [-] 2.196 2014 Aug 28 07:59:32.978 2014 Aug 28 07:59:33.317 2014 Aug 28 07:59:33.655
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 4.492 1.638E-03 0.248 0.955 14.005
40046 AEROCUBE 6B [+] 2.362 2014 Aug 28 14:29:27.987 2014 Aug 28 14:29:28.338 2014 Aug 28 14:29:28.688
09903 METEOR 1-27 [?] 4.792 1.626E-03 0.042 0.177 14.576
30859 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.079 2014 Aug 30 14:40:31.319 2014 Aug 30 14:40:31.662 2014 Aug 30 14:40:32.005
12456 METEOR 2-7 [?] 6.476 1.213E-03 0.049 0.207 14.912
30847 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.502 2014 Aug 31 21:57:52.981 2014 Aug 31 21:57:53.316 2014 Aug 31 21:57:53.651

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2014 August 27 08:48:27 UTC