SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2015 Jul 29 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2015 Jul 29 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2015 Aug 05 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,570 Primaries, 15,080 Secondaries (18,949 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07274 METEOR 1-17 [?] 3.926 1.107E-02 0.023 0.048 13.755
30301 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.545 2015 Aug 02 10:31:02.110 2015 Aug 02 10:31:02.474 2015 Aug 02 10:31:02.837
07349 COSMOS 663 [?] 4.203 8.194E-03 0.011 0.023 13.550
13797 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 4.924 2015 Aug 02 17:38:19.079 2015 Aug 02 17:38:19.448 2015 Aug 02 17:38:19.817
07363 METEOR 1-18 [?] 0.733 6.772E-03 0.045 0.065 14.819
13777 IRAS [-] 0.721 2015 Jul 30 05:46:31.148 2015 Jul 30 05:46:31.486 2015 Jul 30 05:46:31.823
04588 COSMOS 372 [?] 4.139 5.207E-03 0.024 0.098 4.835
24836 IRIDIUM 914 [-] 3.508 2015 Aug 02 00:29:41.841 2015 Aug 02 00:29:42.875 2015 Aug 02 00:29:43.909
24905 IRIDIUM 46 [+] 1.871 4.956E-03 0.021 0.085 4.599
31494 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.298 2015 Jul 31 08:08:23.740 2015 Jul 31 08:08:24.827 2015 Jul 31 08:08:25.914
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
31792 COSMOS 2428 [+] 0.749 4.008E-03 0.011 0.024 13.384
29918 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.228 2015 Jul 30 03:06:35.228 2015 Jul 30 03:06:35.602 2015 Jul 30 03:06:35.975
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 3.492 2.875E-03 0.102 0.148 14.837
25263 IRIDIUM 61 [+] 3.373 2015 Aug 01 20:58:59.249 2015 Aug 01 20:58:59.585 2015 Aug 01 20:58:59.922
10967 SEASAT 1 [-] 1.025 2.348E-03 0.080 0.227 11.784
34271 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.008 2015 Jul 30 06:21:20.693 2015 Jul 30 06:21:21.116 2015 Jul 30 06:21:21.540
25342 IRIDIUM 70 [+] 1.965 1.883E-03 0.054 0.088 14.628
39892 SL-16 DEB [-] 3.725 2015 Jul 31 10:39:13.546 2015 Jul 31 10:39:13.888 2015 Jul 31 10:39:14.229
19274 OKEAN-1 [?] 0.784 1.630E-03 0.069 0.167 13.188
05118 SL-3 R/B [-] 1.238 2015 Jul 30 01:16:27.236 2015 Jul 30 01:16:27.615 2015 Jul 30 01:16:27.994

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2015 July 29 21:58:30 UTC