SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2016 May 01 23:31 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,661 Primaries, 15,388 Secondaries (19,447 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41177 PROGRESS-MS 01 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41393 CYGNUS OA-6 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41452 DRAGON CRS-8 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41393 CYGNUS OA-6 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41452 DRAGON CRS-8 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41177 PROGRESS-MS 01 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41452 DRAGON CRS-8 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41436 PROGRESS-MS 02 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41452 DRAGON CRS-8 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41124 SOYUZ-TMA 19M [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41452 DRAGON CRS-8 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41177 PROGRESS-MS 01 [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000
41391 SOYUZ-TMA 20M [+] 0.766 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
41393 CYGNUS OA-6 [+] 0.766 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 01 12:00:00.000 2016 May 08 12:00:00.000

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com/TS.Kelso@centerforspace.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2016 May 02 03:35:44 UTC