SOCRATES

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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2022 Jan 27 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2022 Jan 27 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2022 Feb 03 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 7,862 Primaries, 23,295 Secondaries (75,459 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
48137 STARLINK-2480 [+] 2.938 5.512E-02 0.002 0.008 4.152
48474 STARLINK-2697 [+] 2.867 2022 Jan 29 12:56:56.764 2022 Jan 29 12:56:57.969 2022 Jan 29 12:56:59.173
47916 STARLINK-2378 [+] 6.315 4.806E-02 0.002 0.009 6.961
48478 STARLINK-2728 [+] 6.390 2022 Feb 02 02:33:28.865 2022 Feb 02 02:33:29.583 2022 Feb 02 02:33:30.302
41888 CYGFM08 [+] 5.570 4.366E-02 0.002 0.009 6.906
50503 ONEWEB-0440 [+] 4.731 2022 Jan 31 21:26:04.577 2022 Jan 31 21:26:05.301 2022 Jan 31 21:26:06.025
47819 STARLINK-2402 [+] 6.116 3.875E-02 0.003 0.010 6.965
48442 STARLINK-2644 [+] 6.655 2022 Feb 02 04:10:24.136 2022 Feb 02 04:10:24.854 2022 Feb 02 04:10:25.572
45380 STARLINK-1207 [+] 4.398 9.930E-03 0.005 0.020 4.644
47751 STARLINK-2168 [+] 4.326 2022 Jan 30 23:42:29.712 2022 Jan 30 23:42:30.789 2022 Jan 30 23:42:31.866
13648 COSMOS 1420 [?] 6.304 5.648E-03 0.013 0.033 12.588
36937 COSMOS 1818 COOLANT [-] 9.632 2022 Feb 02 06:02:54.566 2022 Feb 02 06:02:54.963 2022 Feb 02 06:02:55.360
31113 HAIYANG-1B [+] 6.767 4.345E-03 0.008 0.032 1.634
30464 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.772 2022 Feb 02 10:46:26.940 2022 Feb 02 10:46:30.000 2022 Feb 02 10:46:33.061
44720 STARLINK-1014 [+] 4.459 3.845E-03 0.008 0.033 4.645
48556 STARLINK-2151 [+] 4.531 2022 Jan 31 01:53:18.331 2022 Jan 31 01:53:19.407 2022 Jan 31 01:53:20.484
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 2.848 2.719E-03 0.010 0.040 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 2.848 2022 Jan 27 01:46:05.347 2022 Jan 28 07:07:14.196 2022 Jan 29 07:11:22.782
48095 STARLINK-2414 [+] 4.692 2.700E-03 0.010 0.040 4.151
48591 STARLINK-2248 [+] 4.895 2022 Jan 31 07:27:24.707 2022 Jan 31 07:27:25.912 2022 Jan 31 07:27:27.116

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.