SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Jul 25 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Jul 25 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Aug 01 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 7,365 Primaries, 21,389 Secondaries (57,122 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
48803 TIANZHOU-2 [+] 1.449 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
48852 SHENZHOU-12 [+] 1.449 2021 Jul 25 00:00:00.000 2021 Jul 25 00:00:00.000 2021 Aug 01 00:00:00.000
48939 SPACEBEE-93 [+] 2.527 5.125E-02 0.002 0.009 0.000
48947 SPACEBEE-90 [+] 2.527 2021 Jul 25 00:00:00.000 2021 Jul 26 02:47:54.358 2021 Jul 29 20:44:12.187
16881 COSMOS 1766 [?] 3.825 1.468E-02 0.012 0.017 15.171
44405 LEMUR-2-DUSTINTHEWIND [+] 3.153 2021 Jul 28 07:22:17.972 2021 Jul 28 07:22:18.301 2021 Jul 28 07:22:18.631
48935 SPACEBEE-88 [+] 1.974 9.128E-03 0.005 0.021 0.000
48936 SPACEBEE-97 [+] 1.974 2021 Jul 25 00:00:00.000 2021 Jul 25 11:56:13.369 2021 Jul 26 09:21:50.250
42893 FLOCK 2K-12 [+] 6.575 7.410E-03 0.006 0.022 9.567
44374 PROMETHEUS 2-7 [+] 6.307 2021 Jul 31 03:23:56.726 2021 Jul 31 03:23:57.249 2021 Jul 31 03:23:57.772
48935 SPACEBEE-88 [+] 5.662 5.426E-03 0.007 0.028 0.000
48946 SPACEBEE-99 [+] 5.596 2021 Jul 28 13:40:12.244 2021 Jul 29 04:27:47.795 2021 Jul 29 19:55:08.279
48245 ONEWEB-0217 [+] 3.725 4.177E-03 0.012 0.020 14.355
04768 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 4.208 2021 Jul 28 23:23:38.320 2021 Jul 28 23:23:38.668 2021 Jul 28 23:23:39.017
46153 STARLINK-1636 [+] 6.817 3.272E-03 0.009 0.037 0.528
47173 STARLINK-1890 [+] 6.817 2021 Jul 31 12:53:35.246 2021 Jul 31 12:53:44.712 2021 Jul 31 12:53:54.177
21688 IRS-1B [-] 5.168 3.009E-03 0.033 0.081 12.808
38170 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.136 2021 Jul 30 07:31:46.312 2021 Jul 30 07:31:46.702 2021 Jul 30 07:31:47.092
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 2.297 2.839E-03 0.099 0.353 8.773
45215 STARLINK-1245 [+] 2.004 2021 Jul 26 16:33:11.523 2021 Jul 26 16:33:12.092 2021 Jul 26 16:33:12.660

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.